Beryl is expected to be a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) as it passes the southern coast of Jamaica. “Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and damaging surf are expected,” the Hurricane Center wrote.
Authorities in Grenada struggled Tuesday to assess the extent of the damage, particularly on the hard-hit islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, where roads were impassable and rough sea conditions prevented coastguards from accessing them.
Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said at least three people had been killed and the possibility of the toll rising was a “grim reality”.
He said he was able to reach an official in Carriacou for the first time Tuesday morning and only for a brief call by satellite phone.
“As a nation, we are facing devastation” in Carriacou and Petite Martinique, Mitchell said at a news conference. “The situation is dire. There is no electricity. Homes and buildings are almost completely destroyed.”
He said many petrol stations had been damaged on the small islands, where access to fuel is “a challenge at the best of times”, depriving heavy machinery of the fuel it needs to clear roads. A hospital in Carriacou was also damaged.
The hurricane has severely damaged homes, schools and churches in St. Vincent and the Grenadines and left in its wake “immense destruction, pain and suffering,” Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said Monday night.
He said one person was believed to have died, but he did not provide many details. “There may well be more deaths,” Gonsalves said in a speech. “We are not sure yet.”
At least 90 percent of homes and businesses on Union Island in the southern Grenadines were destroyed or damaged, he said, including its airport.
In Jamaica, government offices and universities closed Tuesday as the storm approached. Authorities urged residents to stock up on supplies and other necessities and urged people in low-lying and flood-prone areas to evacuate to shelters.
“I encourage all Jamaicans to view the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a statement. “This is not the time to panic, however. This is the time for us to take a very strategic and calculated approach.”
Carlton Darien, Jamaican Red Cross membership manager in St. Elizabeth Parish, a large parish in the country’s southwest, said the agency has ambulances and drivers ready and its shelters are prepared.
“We just hope for the best,” Darien told The Washington Post, “but we’re always prepared.”
Beryl’s remarkable strength was due to favorable weather and a context of human-induced global warming. Weak upper-level winds, air propagation aloft, and the presence of an earlier tropical wave all contributed to hurricane formation, but record-breaking September-like water temperatures helped transform the storm into a high-level storm.
There is a strong and well-documented link between the effects of human-induced climate change and the development of stronger, wetter storms that are more likely to intensify rapidly. Beryl escalated from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in just 48 hours, the fastest storm on record before September.
Meteorologists expect the remainder of the 2024 hurricane season to be extremely active, if not hyperactive. Weak upper-level winds that facilitate storm formation will be coupled with broad ascent (upward motion) over the Atlantic. Both of these factors may be linked to the emergence of a La Niña-type weather pattern. Combined with sea surface temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above average, it is not surprising that more storms, and more intense ones, are expected in the coming months.
Mitchell said Grenada was experiencing a “traumatic event” in its history, one that provided “overwhelming evidence” of the threat that climate change poses to small island states.
“When we talk to the nations that created this climate crisis by burning fossil fuels, we have clear and overwhelming new evidence that we are facing an ongoing existential threat to our way of life,” he said. “So we want them to move beyond rhetoric and be able to realize that resources are actually needed to build our resilience and sustainability in the face of this ever-present threat that they have created.”
Where is Beryl now and where she might go next?
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, the center of Hurricane Beryl was located 125 miles (200 kilometers) southeast of Beata Island, Dominican Republic. It was also 420 miles (680 kilometers) from Kingstown, Jamaica. The storm was moving toward the west-northwest at a rapid speed of 22 mph (35 km/h).
Tropical storm warnings are in effect through Wednesday morning for the southern coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic as the storm passes. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, which could cause flash flooding, are expected in western parts of Haiti’s southern peninsula and on the Barahona Peninsula in the southwestern Dominican Republic.
Beryl is expected to hit Jamaica on Wednesday, with its centre passing dangerously close to its southern coast, and the Cayman Islands overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Localised rainfall of up to 30cm is possible in Jamaica, causing flooding, while rising sea levels could raise sea levels 1.5 to 2.5 metres above normally dry land along its southern coast.
Beryl could become only the third major hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher, to move within 100 miles of Jamaica in July.
Later this week, the storm is expected to hit Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, still at hurricane force, with wind gusts of 90 to 100 mph (145 to 160 km/h) on the immediate coast where the eyewall makes landfall. This could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters).
As the storm enters the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico around Friday evening, conditions could become more favorable for it to intensify again.
By the end of the weekend or early next week, there is a possibility that Beryl could become a threat to the coasts of Tamaulipas or Veracruz in Mexico or to far southern Texas. It is also possible that the storm could take a stronger turn northward over the Gulf, which would endanger areas farther north along the Texas coast or even the Louisiana coast early next week.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
