Needless to say, there are not exactly the same parallels between the political landscapes of Europe and the United States, but there have been notable correlations in the past between British and American politics in particular: the populist victory in Brexit in 2016 was a precursor to the populist victory of Donald Trump, and the election of “New Democrat” Bill Clinton in 1992 was a precursor to the election of Tony Blair and his “New Labour” in 1997. So what lessons can we draw from the results of the most recent British and French elections?
First, the center-left and center-right need to work together to stop the extremists. That’s exactly what happened in France, where the New Popular Front and Macron’s party withdrew third-place candidates in more than 200 constituencies that could have split the vote and given seats to the Rally National. This is part of France’s political tradition, where the Republican Front has prevented the far right from taking power since the fall of the Vichy government in 1944.
In the US, Trump and his MAGA cohort have taken control of the Republican Party and may soon be back in the White House, a chilling development considering that the MAGA faction is even more extreme than the National Rally. Both groups are anti-immigrant, but only the Trump faction of the Republican Party actually supports insurrection or promises to undermine democracy. The National Rally has moved to the middle by supporting Ukraine and promising to stay in the EU (although many have questioned whether it is serious), while Trump is showing all sorts of signs that he may cut Ukraine off and withdraw from NATO.
That Trump is so close to returning to power is a rebuke not just to Democrats who nominated an 81-year-old incumbent president who is frail and unable to speak properly, but also to moderate Republicans who did not try harder to stop him. His best chance came during Trump’s second impeachment, when 57 senators, including seven Republicans, voted to convict Trump, but that was still 10 votes short of the 67 needed to convict Trump and disqualify him from running again on a separate ballot.
If Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other mainstream Republicans had found Trump guilty of inciting insurrection, the country would have avoided the catastrophe we now see approaching, but mainstream conservatives have prioritized loyalty to the Republican Party over loyalty to the American Republic.
The second big lesson from last week was the potential appeal of centrism and competence as political antidotes to populism. Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, took over a Labour Party in 2020 that was in decline under far-left leader Jeremy Corbyn. Starmer began a purge of Corbyn supporters, focusing in particular on removing anti-Semites attracted to his predecessor’s anti-Israel policies. Starmer, whose wife is Jewish, thereby signaled to voters that it was once again safe to vote for Labour.
Starmer did not campaign on a radical platform. Instead, in his first speech as prime minister, he promised to “rebuild Britain,” “restore service and respect to politics,” “end the era of loud performance,” “take life more lightly,” and “unite the country.” These may seem like bland promises, but they went down well with voters exhausted by 14 years of Conservative drama and dysfunction that delivered Brexit and (not coincidentally) economic stagnation.
Britain’s experience suggests that the best antidote to populism may simply be for populists to fail to govern. Even the Conservative Party eventually turned its back on ultra-populist Boris Johnson, who served as prime minister from 2019 to 2022. Johnson discredited himself with lies and incompetence. His successors, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, were unable to restore the Conservatives’ lost reputation as a serious governing party.
Given that Trump’s term in office was far more disastrous than Johnson’s, Democrats should be able to beat him again by playing up their centrism and competence, as they did in 2020. But they are saddled with a candidate who 74 percent of Americans consider too old to serve another term. Biden Democrats are still far more centrist than Trump Republicans, but for the time being, at least, they have somehow squandered their reputation as the party that can govern well.
A third lesson from recent elections is the power of anti-incumbency messages in a world plagued by stagnant economic growth, widening income inequality, high rates of international migration, and the persistent effects of inflation. Popular discontent and frustration can easily be amplified by social media and manipulated by demagogues.
Both Sunak and Macron experienced significant electoral backlash, although Macron’s party managed to come in second in the final vote, seemingly confirming the lessons of recent elections in India and South Africa, where incumbent party leaders were defeated and forced to form coalitions with other parties.
A Pew Research Center poll of 12 high-income countries this year found that 64% of respondents were dissatisfied with the current state of democracy, a big deterioration from 2021, when 52% were dissatisfied. The survey also found that satisfaction in the United States (just 31%) was even lower than in the UK (39%) and France (35%).
Even before the presidential debate disaster, it should have been a warning sign for the Biden campaign this year. After the debate, it seemed even more likely that anti-incumbency would undermine the entire Democratic field unless Democrats could find a more inspiring candidate — either Vice President Harris or (even better) a governor or senator with no ties to the current administration.
The final lesson of the election is about the importance in a democracy of losing candidates accepting the outcome with grace. Britain is exemplary in this respect. Sunak told the public shortly after realising he would lose power: “Today power will be transferred in a peaceful and orderly manner with goodwill from all parties involved.” Jeremy Hunt said on his departure as Chancellor of the Exchequer: “Don’t be sad. This is the magic of democracy.”
That’s how a nation strengthens its support for democracy. In contrast, Jordan Bardella, 28, president of the National Coalition, blamed the party’s loss on “dishonorable alliances and a dangerous electoral system.” Trump has gone further than Bardella, making it clear that he has not yet accepted the results of the 2020 election and is unlikely to do so in 2024, even if he loses.
Trump thus fails a fundamental test of democratic leadership. If mainstream Republicans were more loyal to American democracy, they would repudiate Trump. But they have not. That is why the risk of a far-right takeover, averted in France, looms so large in November.
