Incumbents pay the price in a global election year

CNN
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A global election year, with countries representing half the world’s population voting, is shaping up to be a tough one for incumbents struggling with the painful economic aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and scandals and fatigue that have plagued leaders who have been in power for years.

Recent elections in France and the UK have shown that disaffected but informed voters are using democracy in novel ways to reshape their countries through strategic voting, and in Iran, even in the highly restrictive circumstances of an election engineered by a clerical dictatorship, voters behaved in an unexpected way, leading to the defeat of hardliners.

So far, this global exercise in political self-determination has served to entrench the principle that people should choose their leaders, while also highlighting growing threats to democracy, the rule of law, and the rise of populist leaders. In some countries, such as El Salvador and Slovakia, leaders and parties with authoritarian instincts have consolidated power through the ballot box. In others, such as Russia, they have suppressed voter rights to extend their rule. And in countries such as Indonesia and Mexico, concerns are growing that powerful new leaders could centralize power and erode democratic structures.

The omens are grim for leaders seeking re-election this year. Incumbency usually means vulnerability, as the landmark vote in South Africa showed, and anxiety about a cost-of-living crisis is spreading across developed societies. Populism is having a moment that mirrors the 2016 UK vote to leave the EU, shortly after which Donald Trump won the election in the US.

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But the enduring power of democracy to channel public anger against the power of dominant leaders and force change has been demonstrated in countries from India to Senegal, and elections in Taiwan and South Korea have demonstrated the dynamism of the idea that free elections can promote stable governance.

Voting is underway around the world ahead of crucial elections in November in the world’s most powerful democracy, the United States. President Joe Biden, weakened by his disastrous debate defeats exacerbated concerns about voter age, has warned that Trump’s return to power after his 2020 election loss and his attempt to steal the election poses an existential threat to the principle of government of the people, by the people and for the people around the world.

Here are some of the most significant election results so far in 2024, highlighting what could be a pivotal moment for our democracy.

The far-right made strong gains in June’s European Parliament elections, but the populist wave fell short of the most dire predictions of critics who warn that the continent’s democratic traditions are at risk. Still, significantly, the far-right performed best in France and Germany, two of the EU’s biggest powers. Despite political changes, the center-right European People’s Party remains the largest force in pan-EU politics, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is a sure bet to be re-elected.

Following Marine Le Pen’s dramatic gains in the European Parliament elections for her far-right National Rally, French President Emmanuel Macron made a shocking call for new parliamentary elections, urging voters to neutralize the growing threat of extremism. France’s two-round elections kept the far-right out of power on Sunday, but Macron’s gamble didn’t pay off. A left-leaning New Popular Front coalition was born to thwart Le Pen, and the elections ended up empowering the far-left forces Macron had previously defeated with his new centrist politics. A period of political turmoil looms, with a hanging parliament, unstable coalitions and uncertainty ahead of the next presidential election in 2027.

Last week’s vote ended 14 years of Conservative rule marked by scandals, the Brexit vote and political turmoil that saw five prime ministers in eight years. New Chancellor Keir Starmer led Labour to a landmark victory but faces the daunting task of rebuilding ailing public services with government finances depleted and the economy in a tailspin due to Brexit.

Former Army General Prabowo Subianto has won the presidential elections of the world’s fourth-most populous country with the largest Muslim population. Subianto ostensibly presents himself as a supporter of Indonesia’s vibrant but often fragile democracy, where the military remains a key power. But his military career has been shadowed by allegations of human rights abuses, particularly under his father-in-law, dictator Suharto.

The world’s largest democracy produced a surprise result that showed the power of “one person, one vote” even in a country where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been accused of stifling freedom of assembly and press and undermining constitutional guarantees of secularism. The Hindu nationalist leader remained in power but his hopes of winning a firm majority in Parliament were dashed. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party will now have to rely on its coalition partners after a week of general elections that will be remembered for a prominent pollster being reduced to tears on live television after an exit poll blunder that overlooked a shocking result.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Pakistan, a massive protest vote against the military in February saw supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan emerge as the largest party in parliament, exposing the limits of voter power and democracy. But two anti-Khan parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party, banded together to prevent supporters of the former cricket superstar from forming a government. A supporter of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s scandal-ridden husband, Asif Ali Zardari, is now prime minister and president.

Concerns about the erosion of democracy in South Asia were also intensified by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s election victory in January, which the United States warned was not free and fair and was marred by the arrests of thousands of opposition members.

In Russia, it came as no surprise that President Vladimir Putin orchestrated a vote to extend his dictatorship until at least 2030. The elections were the first since opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in prison, and those allowed to run against Putin are controlled by the Kremlin, with all credible opposition leaders jailed, exiled, or barred from running.

In El Salvador, a dictatorship was also established through democratic means. President Najib Bukele, the self-proclaimed “coolest dictator in the world” and hugely popular president who purges gangs, was re-elected with overwhelming support. His dominance was strengthened when his New Thought party won an overwhelming majority in parliament. Despite his popularity, critics warn that Bukele is seriously eroding the country’s democratic standards.

Similar concerns about Mexico’s democratic institutions have been raised after the historic election of Claudia Scheinbaum, the country’s first female president. Scheinbaum, a left-wing meteorologist and physicist, has jumped on the bandwagon of her longtime ally, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Scheinbaum, who would be Mexico’s first Jewish president, holds a majority in Congress and has the power to push through constitutional changes that critics say could erode independent regulatory agencies, politicize the judiciary and provide few checks on presidential executive power.

The dynamism of Taiwan’s democracy was on display in an election that sharply escalated tensions with China: Former Vice President Lai Ching-te handed his Democratic Progressive Party a historic third consecutive presidential victory as voters ignored warnings from Beijing about the possibility of an increased conflict with the mainland government, which claims Taiwan as part of China.

South Korea’s voters rallied for reform in April, giving the liberal opposition a majority in parliament and dealing a blow to President Yoon Seok-yeo and his conservative allies. The election was shaped by public anger over a cost-of-living crisis and political scandals, including one involving the first lady.

Portugal’s incumbent government suffered another blow in March when the Socialist government was ousted by the center-right Democratic Union coalition. But the most notable feature of the election was the rise of the far-right party Chega, whose leader, a former priest and soccer commentator, André Ventura, won nearly a fifth of the vote. Given the fragility of the minority government, many observers expect new elections to be called soon.

There was good news for Putin in Slovakia in April, when left-wing nationalist Peter Pellegrini won the presidential election, boosting support for pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who raised concerns about the rule of law and government interference in the media. However, the results were soon overshadowed by an assassination attempt on Fico, which left him seriously wounded and suggested he was targeted because he had undermined the country’s dominant pro-Ukrainian position in Europe.

South African voters also demanded change. For the first time in 30 years, the ruling African National Congress (Nelson Mandela’s party) lost its parliamentary majority, marking the most significant political change since the end of apartheid. The rebuke followed years of corruption scandals, economic mismanagement, and rising violent crime. The post-election political maneuvering produced even more surprising alliances than the result: the ANC agreed to form a government with its staunchest rival, the white-led Democratic Alliance, which had long been the ANC’s official opposition.

Senegal has long been considered one of Africa’s most stable democracies, but that tradition was put at risk when outgoing President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone elections sparked mass protests. However, Sall’s decision was overturned by the country’s Supreme Court, and presidential elections were held in March, with opposition candidate Bashir Diomaye Faye winning a majority and becoming Africa’s youngest democratically elected president at age 44, just days after being released from prison under Sall’s pardon.

Iran was not scheduled to hold a presidential election this year. But the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has intensified the race to succeed 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid growing public discontent over the state of the economy and clerical authoritarianism. Tehran’s religious leaders quashed dissent and approved a list of candidates mostly made up of hardliners. But reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian defeated ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, resulting in the lowest turnout since the Islamic Republic of Iran was established in 1979. Pezeshkian has supported dialogue with Iran’s enemies, especially over its nuclear program, but said the United States does not expect Iran’s stance toward the outside world to change as long as the ayatollah holds ultimate power.