Top Line
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in most national surveys taken after the key June 27 debate, and the latest polls show that more than half of Biden supporters think he should drop out of the race and 81% think he’s too old to serve another term, according to the Real Clear Politics polling tracker.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, with Trump’s lead in early polls declining
Key Facts
The Real Clear Politics poll has Trump leading Biden by three points, a 1.5-point shift in Trump’s favor since the debate, while the FiveThirtyEight poll has him up 1.6 points, up 1.9 points since June 27.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday showed Biden and Trump tied among registered voters, with Trump leading by one point in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination, a better-than-usual showing for Biden.
But the poll also showed that 67% of respondents said Biden should drop out of the race and 85% said he is too old to serve as president, up from 81% in April and 68% a little over a year ago.
According to an ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll, 54% of Biden supporters said he should drop out of the presidential race, and 81% said he is too old to serve another term.
The latest Emerson College poll, conducted July 7-8, has Trump leading Biden by three points, and the weekly Morning Consult poll also has him leading by two points.
The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted June 28-July 2, showed Trump leading Biden by six points, a three-point improvement from a poll conducted a week earlier, and the largest lead Trump has had in any poll conducted by the two groups since he first launched his presidential campaign in 2015.
A Wall Street Journal poll taken after the debate also found Biden trailing Trump by six points, the largest lead Trump has had over Biden in a Wall Street Journal poll since 2021 and Trump’s lead has grown by four points since February.
A post-debate CBS/YouGov poll in seven key battleground states likely to determine the election winner found Trump trailing Biden by one point last month but now leading by three points.
News Peg
Following the debate, Biden was called upon to withdraw from the race by 11 House Democrats, one Senate Democrat, a range of prominent commentators and several major news organizations, but he firmly refused. Despite Biden’s insistence that he will continue in the race, Representative Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., suggested on Wednesday that the president’s decision to continue may not be firm, telling MSNBC that “it’s up to the president whether he runs or not,” adding that “time is running out and we’re all urging the president to make a decision.”
Important Quotes
“The question of how to proceed has been under discussion for well over a week now, and it is time to end it,” Biden said in a letter to congressional Democrats on Monday.
What we don’t know
How alternative candidates will fare against Trump in the November election. If the election were held today, most polls show that Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s most likely replacement if he withdraws, would perform better than any other commonly mentioned Democratic candidate, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. But Harris and Biden are performing similarly, with some polls showing Harris performing better against Trump and others showing Biden performing better. But what the polls don’t or can’t take into account is how months of campaigning for Harris, or other candidates without the benefit of her national name recognition, will affect voter sentiment.
Points to note
Pre-debate polls had shown Trump consistently leading Biden in seven key battleground states that Biden had won in 2020 except for North Carolina. A May Cook Political Report poll showed Trump leading by an average of three points in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Trump leading Biden by four points across battleground states, and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll showed Trump beating Biden in five of the six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada) except for Wisconsin.
Amazing facts
In such a close race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent could potentially sway the outcome of the election, although it is unclear who will have the advantage. A May Emerson poll showed Trump widening his lead over Biden from 2 points to 5 points, with Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein on the list. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll showed that the three independents had increased Trump’s lead by 2 points. A Times/Siena/Inquirer poll found that Kennedy Jr. was attracting votes from Biden’s core supporters, and a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll showed that Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy would not change Trump’s 5-point lead. Meanwhile, an NBC poll from April showed Biden trailing Trump by two points in head-to-head contests but ahead by two points when Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are running.
tangent
Polls have consistently shown that Biden, and the Democratic Party as a whole, is losing support from black, Latino and young voters who have traditionally been the Democratic Party’s primary supporters. A May NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that voters under 45 favored Biden over Trump by just four points, and Biden has a six-point lead among Gen Z/Millennials in head-to-head contests, but when third-party candidates are added, the vote tilts in Trump’s favor among these two groups (six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight points among voters under 45). An April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trails by four points among 18-29 year olds. These two groups voted for Biden with more than 60% of their votes in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds such as New York, where he beat Trump by 23 points in 2020.
Main Background
Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after winning their respective parties’ nominations in March and finishing their primaries much earlier than previous elections. Polls show voter enthusiasm is historically low, with both candidates receiving relatively low approval ratings, below 45%. An NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were “very interested” in this year’s election, the lowest in two decades. Trump has centered his campaign on legal issues, accusing the prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of undermining Biden’s chances of winning the election at his behest, though there is no evidence to suggest this belief is true. Meanwhile, Biden has cited Trump’s role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol as a threat to democracy and has slammed Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show that the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top concerns for voters, and a Times/Siena/Inquirer poll found that majorities trust Trump more than Biden on the economy, crime and handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.
References
6 Battleground States Trump Needs to Take from Biden to Win in November (Forbes)
Biden’s Post-Debate Poll is Ominous: 66% of Voters Doubt His Mental Health—Trump’s Lead Widens (Forbes)
Biden’s Support Suddenly Falls: More Democrats Openly Want Biden Out of the Race (Forbes)
