A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in Virginia from July 9-12 found the opposite result, showing Biden leading Trump among likely voters by 3 percentage points (48-45), again within the poll’s margin of error. Both polls are consistent with other recent Virginia surveys suggesting a significant decline in support for Biden, who beat Trump in the state by 10 points in 2020.
“Virginia is the issue,” said L. Douglas Wilder (D), a former governor and president of the School of Public Policy, which sponsored the poll. “It’s a close race. It’s a turnout election in Virginia.”
The VCU-Wilder poll also shows Virginians favor incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D) over Republican challenger Hun Kao by double digits, 49 percent to 38 percent.
At the same time, the poll showed a net drop of seven percentage points in Virginians’ approval of Governor Glenn Youngkin (R), with 50% approving of his job as governor and 39% disapproving. In the school’s January poll, Youngkin’s approval rose four points to 54%, while disapproval fell three points to 36%.
With Youngkin weakening and Cain strengthening, Wilder said, “So why is Democratic support for Biden declining so much? I’m not one of those people who would say he should resign, but it’s very concerning for the Democratic Party.” Wilder, an occasional critic of Biden and known as a Democratic contrarian, cited Biden’s debate performance and A subsequent television interview with George Stephanopoulos weakened the president’s support.
Respondents rated “the rising cost of living” as the biggest issue in the election, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration.
Biden’s job performance overall was rated poorly, with 36 percent approving of his job as president and 58 percent disapproving.
Democrats especially lost support among black voters, with 46% of black voters saying they would vote for Biden and 13.7% saying they would vote for Trump, down from 67% support for Biden among black voters in the last VCU-Wilder poll.
The poll found that 53% of Virginia voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump after his New York conviction on 34 felony counts related to paying hush money to adult film actresses, while 31% said they were more likely to vote for him after his conviction. Among independents, 45% said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him, while 25% said it made them more likely.
Wilder said the results mean Biden will have to spend time convincing Virginians to support him. “He needs to do something tangible in Virginia so that people think, ‘I should support this guy.’ This isn’t about the lesser of two evils. No, no, tell us what you’re going to do,” Wilder said.
Trump has maintained he can win Virginia with the backing of Youngkin, who has so far steered clear of the controversial former president, and finally appeared with him at a rally in Chesapeake, Virginia, late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has opened 11 campaign offices across Virginia and even appeared at an abortion rights rally in Manassas in January.
The VCU-Wilder poll consisted of telephone interviews with 809 Virginia adults ages 18 and older, with about one-third conducted by landline and the rest by cell phone.
