YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio (WKBN) – The 2024 tropical hurricane season is off to a strong start as Hurricane Beryl became the fastest Category 5 hurricane on record.
The tropics are currently calm due to the influx of Saharan dust, but this won’t last long: the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts a very active hurricane season with 17-25 named storms (average 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average 3).
Hurricane season peaks in late summer and early fall, the worst time of the year because that’s when many Americans vacation along the coast. If you’re planning a trip in the next few months, it might be helpful to start planning now. Dr. Alex DeRogers of Colorado State University offers this advice:
“A good first step is to pay attention to things like this, understand what the possibilities are for hurricane season and know when major storms are more likely to occur, like late August, early September.”
While it’s impossible to know the exact date a hurricane will strike in two months’ time, meteorologists can use past events to help predict the future. Typically, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is the second week of September.
The best way to get the latest information from the tropics is to tune in to the National Hurricane Center.
“If you’re planning on traveling during this time, be aware of what’s happening in the tropics. If you’re in their path, don’t panic and keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center and your local emergency managers,” Desrosiers said.
Another way to prevent financial loss from a cancelled holiday is to purchase travel insurance, which can cover a range of issues including illness, bad weather and lost baggage.
According to the U.S. Travel Insurance Association (USTIA), travel insurance typically costs between 4% and 8% of the total cost of the trip, with costs varying depending on the length of the trip, the destination, and the age of the policyholder.
Obviously, hurricanes fall into the “severe weather” category, but there’s a catch: Insurance companies will likely not cover claims for insurance purchased after a storm has been named. Typically, insurance must be purchased more than 24 hours before a named storm for a claim to be paid. This can be difficult when a storm is named deep in the Atlantic, like Hurricane Beryl.
Hurricane Beryl was first named on June 28, but didn’t make landfall in the U.S. until July 8. What’s more, it wasn’t even known until a few days before that Beryl would hit the U.S. coastline. When a storm like Beryl hits, it can be hard to know exactly when to buy travel insurance.
Why are there expected to be more hurricanes than usual this season?
The main controlling factor for hurricane season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). ENSO can be neutral or it can be in an El Niño or La Niña state – terms that are well known. This year, ENSO is expected to transition into La Niña during the peak of hurricane season, which could lead to intensified hurricanes, Des Rogers said.
“As we approach the peak of hurricane season, we are expecting a transition to a La Niña event, which tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity by reducing vertical wind shear,” DeRogers said.
La Niña weakens the vertical wind shear (the change in wind speed and direction with height) that normally weakens tropical systems. Weak wind shear allows hurricanes to continue to grow unhindered over warmer waters.
Speaking of warmer waters, that’s another reason why hurricane season is expected to be more active.
“Ocean conditions are a big factor in this year’s hurricane forecast. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above average, and in many areas temperatures are reaching record levels, which is favorable for hurricanes that are fueled by warmer temperatures to form and intensify,” Desrosiers explained.
But just because an active hurricane season is forecast, doesn’t mean you should cancel your trip.
“It’s important to remember that not everyone is affected. The location you choose for your vacation may be fine. I don’t think the active season alone should be a reason to change your travel plans, but you can take basic precautions,” Desrosiers said.
The most important thing right now is to keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center and stay informed of developing storms that may affect your area.
