- A reporter for The Atlantic tweeted Monday that Trump allies were “second-guessing” JD Vance.
- Four political scientists told BI there are good reasons to regret the choice.
- They said Vance lacks charm and public speaking skills.
According to a tweet by Tim Alberta of The Atlantic, allies of former President Donald Trump say there is some skepticism about the selection of Sen. J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate — especially now that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to lead the Democratic ticket.
Four political scientists told Business Insider that the Trump camp has legitimate reason to be concerned.
According to an Alberta story in The Atlantic, President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race has forced the Trump team to reset their strategy.
Initially, Trump allies said they were confident in their campaign plan, which was designed to defeat Biden.
The Atlantic reports that the Trump team chose JD Vance to try to capitalize on their early success, aiming to increase MAGA’s margin of support in a “landslide” election rather than persuade undecided voters.
Thomas Gift, director of the Centre for US Politics at UCL, told BI that Trump’s selection of Vance was a “confident — some might say too confident” — decision.
“Doubling down on mobilizing the MAGA base for a candidate who already has a large base has never seemed like the best tactic,” he said.
Lack of crossover appeal
Angelia R. Wilson, author of “The Politics of Hate” and professor of politics at the University of Manchester, agreed that the possibility of Harris replacing Biden has exposed new weaknesses in the Trump-Vance pairing.
He noted that with Biden leading the Democratic ticket, Trump and Vance could effectively criticize Biden’s age and competence.
But with Harris as a candidate, they need to focus on other topics.
Wilson suspects the Trump team will try to exploit divisions around race and gender, which, he said, “will cost them votes among suburban soccer moms,” among other voters.
Colin Talbot, emeritus professor of politics at the University of Manchester, told BI that he thought Trump’s all-male ticket was at serious risk of losing “the independent and centrist female vote.”
In recent days, a 2021 clip has resurfaced showing Vance describing Harris as one of those “childless cat ladies” who “sucks” her life and has no interest in America’s future because she doesn’t have children.
(Harris has two stepchildren with her husband, Doug Emhoff)
And in the ongoing debate over reproductive rights, Harris has been an outspoken supporter of abortion rights, while Vance said in a podcast in 2022 that he wanted to see abortion made “illegal nationwide.”
Talbot said Trump picked Vance when he thought he had “victory in the bag,” but now the “mistake” of not balancing the choices, both ideologically and gender-wise, is clear.
Awkward rally performance
According to Kevin Fahey, assistant professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, there is another reason why the Trump world’s suspicions about Vance may be unfounded: his public speaking skills.
This election cycle has shown how one poor performance can significantly damage a candidate’s reputation.
While Vance’s first solo campaign rally in Virginia on Monday wasn’t as bad or as widely watched as Biden’s debate performance, Fahey told Business Insider it still exposed potential weaknesses.
The Diet Mountain Dew joke didn’t land. Later, Vance stuttered through his speech and mumbled a nervous laugh. Democrats quickly seized on the awkward moment.
Further blunders on the microphone could damage Vance’s appeal in front of someone as skilled at whipping up rally attendees as Trump.
“He doesn’t have the charisma of Donald Trump,” Fahey added.
While speaking skills aren’t everything, Fahey also noted that Vance doesn’t have a long legislative track record to fall back on, or any evidence that he can outperform Trump in Ohio.
Aside from his loyalty to Trump, Fahey said, “Vance has made no contributions to the Republican ticket.”
