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A billboard for the film Deadpool & Wolverine is seen in Times Square, Manhattan, New York City, on July 25.
New York City
CNN News
—
One of the most anticipated films of the year, “Deadpool & Wolverine,” has so far lived up to expectations with a domestic opening of $96 million, according to Comscore data.
The summer blockbuster is expected to gross more than $200 million domestically over the weekend, industry analysts say. That would be a record-breaking achievement for the franchise.
“It’s a major industry benchmark for an R-rated film to open in the $200 million range, something that was completely unheard of until this title,” said Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro.
The first Deadpool film set the record for the highest-grossing opening weekend when it was released in 2016 with an estimated $132 million, and “Deadpool 2” came in second with $125 million domestically in 2018. However, even when adjusted for inflation, both films pale in comparison to the third film, which is anticipated to gross $200 to $220 million, according to Loria.
An opening weekend of this magnitude would put “Deadpool & Wolverine” on par with some of Marvel’s highest-grossing films, including 2012’s “The Avengers” ($207 million) and 2018’s “Black Panther” ($202 million).
“It’s set to enter the top 10 openings of all time and marks the sixth highest Friday ever reported at the box office,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “It also marks the highest opening weekend for Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman and (director) Shawn Levy.”
Dergarabedian added that the promotional efforts behind the film, its critical success and audience enthusiasm have “made this weekend a July finale in the cinematic history books.”
According to Box Office Pro data, the excitement surrounding “Deadpool & Wolverine” has driven demand for theatrical releases, increasing the number of screenings in theaters across the country. The film currently holds a 43% share of the U.S. box office.
The film holds an Audience Score of 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, the second-highest score for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film after “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” and earned an ‘A’ CinemaScore, matching its two predecessors.
Although summer ticket sales are off to a slow start after a bland spring, there are a few blockbusters that are freshening up the industry.
“Since June, there has been a non-stop parade of blockbusters, starting with ‘Bad Boys: Ride Or Die,’ and continuing with ‘Inside Out 2,’ ‘A Quiet Place: Day One,’ ‘Despicable Me 4,’ ‘Twisters,’ and now ‘Deadpool & Wolverine,’ making for one of the most storied stretches of blockbusters in summer movie history,” Dergarabedian said.
Last week, Disney announced that “Inside Out 2” had become the highest-grossing animated film of all time, grossing $1.46 billion at the global box office. and beat the previous record holder, 2019’s “Frozen 2.”
Up until the film’s June 16 release, domestic sales were more than 25% behind 2023’s performance, according to Comscore data. But less than three weeks into its release, the year-over-year domestic box office deficit has narrowed from 27% to 19%.
The deficit is now 16.9% and could shrink further depending on how “Deadpool & Wolverine” performs. Last year at this time, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” was the top film with a domestic gross of more than $574 million. Meanwhile, the enduring success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” — both released July 21 — helped push the 2023 cumulative domestic box office past $9 billion, the highest since the pandemic.
While analysts are forecasting a more lukewarm total for 2024, the success of summer films is positioning the industry to further narrow the gap.
“This weekend’s performance certainly makes us more optimistic about the box office outlook for 2024, but we still have a long way to go before the end of the year and year-over-year comparisons are going to be up and down,” said Dergarabedian, who predicted full-year box office would come in between $8.2 billion and $8.7 billion. “The fact that we’re likely to end up in the $8 billion-plus range, given how weak the first quarter and April were, is pretty impressive.”
