3D rendering automated car factory concept with robotic assembly line and electric cars … [+]
AI-driven automation could be the key to solving three big problems: immigration, declining birth rates, and retirement. Yet strangely, automation is not a planned policy solution to these and related problems. There were many problems with the way the US Federal Government handled the COVID-19 pandemic, but Operation Warp Speed was not one of them. Should AI-driven automation receive the same kind of investment priority that vaccines received? Instead of everyone treating “automation” defensively. Think Operation Warp Speed. “It was a public-private partnership initiated by the U.S. government to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics for COVID-19.” Is this a model for investing in AI and automation?
AI and immigration
Robots using image processing technology harvest tomatoes in agriculture … [+]
for example, Economic If there is an argument for why the United States (and other countries) need immigrants, why not sidestep that argument with a massive federal investment in automation designed to directly contribute to economic growth? Is there an opportunity here for a public-private partnership? Clearly many companies are pursuing automation at breakneck speed. They want to save costs and increase profitability by reducing their reliance on humans. Progress is a great thing. But what is being proposed here is a massive public-private partnership to accelerate automation and shift its focus to other areas. Economic A hole that was meant to be filled by immigration.
Obviously, there are many reasons why people come to the United States and other developed countries. The economic argument does not discount any of those motivations. Instead, the hypothesis is that: Economic The debate over immigration may play out in a completely different framework than it does today. For example, it is well-known that many immigrants come to the United States to escape political prosecution or violence and to seek a better life for their families. All of this is good, but Economic The arguments politicians make about the need for increased immigration could be affected by lightning-fast investments in automation. Of course, “politicians” are heat-seeking missiles aimed at money and power, so it remains to be seen whether they will accept arguments that don’t quite fit their personal agenda. But that aside, there is an opportunity to leverage AI-enabled automation to address some of the economic requirements that immigration may or may not fulfill.
AI and low birth rates
Next, let us look at human reproduction.
Concept of declining birth rate. Population decline, population crisis.
“The U.S. general fertility rate fell 3% starting in 2022, hitting an all-time low. It marks the second consecutive year of decline after a short-term increase of 1% from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the fertility rate consistently declined 2% annually.”
(Note that “fertility rates measure the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, often between 15 and 44 years old.”)
What does this mean?
“If the U.S. total fertility rate remains this low for a long period of time, specifically well below 2, it could lead to slower population growth, which in turn could lead to slower economic growth and fiscal difficulties. While this decline is a fairly new challenge for the U.S., other high-income countries have been maintaining below-replacement fertility rates for several years and are experimenting with policies to mitigate the trend.”
Automation can help mitigate the trend, and AI can bring subtle efficiencies.
Is automation the solution to an ageing society? If we have machines to replace non-existent humans (as long as humans need to be replaced), is that all bad? Automation may eliminate all concerns about an ageing society shrinking due to falling birth rates.
retirement
Businessman holding a black alarm clock showing a clockwise countdown from work to retirement.
The same arguments that apply to declining birth rates also apply to early retirement or any other retirement: What’s wrong with someone retiring from a job that can be automated?
It is said that the number of people retiring is increasing at an unprecedented pace.
“The number of retirees is now growing at an alarming pace, outpacing the influx of new workers. This trend is leading to an unparalleled aging of America’s population, creating major changes to the workforce, economy and global mobility industry.”
Meaning?
“Demand for workers remains strong with approximately two job openings for every unemployed person. And with more than 75 million baby boomers retiring early, it’s clear that employers will need strong workforce plans to replace retiring workers.”
“Filling the labour gap will be a considerable challenge. Relying solely on Gen X workers will not be enough, and many millennials may lack the requisite work experience, foreign-born workers may face immigration barriers, and not all jobs are suitable for flexible or remote workers.”
If there is a role for automation, it is this.
Automation Policy
We’ve discussed this before:
“Do we need tax accountants? Car salespeople? Loan officers? Automation is just getting started, and as more employees retire, automation may replace them sooner than we think. Why doesn’t Uber try to eliminate its biggest pain point – its drivers – with self-driving cars? Why doesn’t every company try to have a ‘worker’ that works 24/7, doesn’t need vacations, doesn’t join a union, doesn’t get sick? What about cashiers? What about postal workers? What about gas station attendants (who are almost nonexistent now)? And so on.”
Honeywell reports several robotics-focused survey results.
“Productivity gains from robots are increasing,” says John Dillon. “The technology is improving and the costs of not automating are getting higher.”
“Warehouses that would normally require 2,000 employees can now be run with just 200 employees if they adopt technology and warehouse execution software.”
Automation may be the solution to many economic problems. In 1982 (!), the government believed in the power of automation through “federal efforts to promote automation, including (1) financial incentives for private sector activity, (2) research responsibilities, (3) technology transfer mechanisms, (4) support for engineering education, and (5) the development of standards to facilitate the integration of various components of automated systems.” Today, however, 40 Years Later – Here’s a question I get asked over and over again: “What should governments do about the coming automation apocalypse?”
Automation and its best friend “AI” are not the apocalypse. They are the solution to the severe economic problems facing the US and the developed world. Yes, there will be job losses. It’s impossible to perfectly time the introduction of automation with immigration, birth rates, and retirement.But the hypothesis should at least be tested. Planned automation could alleviate some economic stress, maybe a lot of it. The technology is ready. The companies are ready. But will politicians support an automation operation? Or will they be focused on other things?
