Just one day after President Joe Biden gave up on reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, the political landscape in the country has shifted dramatically. Biden’s popularity has been declining in the polls, especially after his disastrous debate defeats, but a new national poll shows Harris has the potential to secure victory over Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.
But Trump maintains slim leads over his Democratic rivals in all seven battleground states that are likely to decide the election.
Live updates:Harris pays tribute to Biden in first public appearance since campaign begins
Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination at the Republican Convention last week, but Democrats have just under a month to rally support for their new nominee, as the Democratic National Convention doesn’t begin until Aug. 19. Harris is likely to become the new nominee, with more than 40% of the 1,968 delegates needed declaring their support for her on the first day of running.
According to the latest polls, here’s how Harris will fare against Trump in seven key battleground states:
Arizona
Polls following Biden’s withdrawal from the race have yet to be released, but an Insider Advantage poll conducted on July 15 and 16, just days before Biden’s announcement, showed Trump leading Biden in Arizona. Of the 800 voters surveyed, 49% supported Trump, 44% supported Biden, 4% chose a third-party candidate, and 3% were undecided.
Harris’s approval rating of 42% was just below Trump’s 48%. But because Harris was still the vice presidential candidate at the time the survey was conducted, Matt Towery, a political analyst at Insider Advantage, said her low approval rating was not surprising and was likely to change with further polling.
“Her approval rating could improve because of her status as a candidate,” he said.
summary:Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris after she drops out of 2024 election
Georgia
An exclusive Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released hours after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race showed former President Donald Trump slightly ahead of Harris, 51% to 46% with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Two percent of voters were undecided, 1% said they would vote for a third-party candidate and another 1% said they would not vote for any presidential candidate.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 voters between July 9 and 18, comes amid growing calls from Democrats to have Biden reconsider his reelection bid and amid a continuing assassination attempt on Trump. The survey was conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs.
Black voters, a key demographic in the Peach State, notably preferred Harris over Biden: About 87% of respondents said they had a favorable view of Harris, while 82% said the same about Biden.
Michigan
A poll conducted independently by the Detroit Free Press and released just hours before Biden gave up his reelection bid showed former President Donald Trump holding a substantial seven percentage point lead over the incumbent president.
But those numbers could change if Harris becomes the nominee. A recent poll by the left-leaning environmental group Clean and Prosperous America PAC found that voters favor Trump over Harris, with 46% voting for him and 41% for the vice president. But if Harris chooses Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate, the poll said the two candidates would be tied at 46% each.
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Nevada
An Insider Advantage poll conducted on July 15 and 16, days before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race, showed Trump leading Biden in Nevada, 49% to 42%, among 800 voters.
Trump, facing Harris, opened up a lead among voters polled, garnering 50% of the vote to Harris’ 40%, but as with the Arizona polls, experts said those numbers were unlikely to change if Harris became the official candidate.
North Carolina
There are currently no polls pitting Harris against Trump, but a recent Emerson College poll conducted on July 15-16 showed Trump leading Biden by seven points, receiving 47% of respondents to Biden’s 38%.
more:Seven ways Kamala Harris paves the way for the Democratic nomination
Pennsylvania
More than a week has passed since the shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, but former President Trump maintains a slim lead of 4.4 percentage points over incumbent President Biden, according to an average of polls calculated by FiveThirtyEight.
But even before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race, numbers from Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling showed voters were more enthusiastic about Harris than Biden, at 43% and 45%, respectively, just two points behind Trump.
Wisconsin
The Civics poll of 514 Wisconsin voters found Trump and Harris tied at 48% with a margin of error of 4.8%. The poll was conducted from July 13-16, just after the assassination attempt on Trump and before Biden dropped out of the race. At the time, 28% of voters surveyed said Biden’s age was their biggest concern about the president’s chances of a second term.
