The French will go to the polls on Sunday for the final round of early parliamentary elections. The results could force President Emmanuel Macron to govern alongside far-right opponents or open the way to chronic political instability just weeks before the Paris Summer Olympics.
Mr Macron called elections last month for the National Assembly, the lower and most important house of France’s 577-seat parliament, in a risky gamble that appeared to have largely backfired after the first round of voting last week.
Most polling stations close at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday, or until 8 p.m. in major cities. Nationwide seat projections, based on preliminary pollster results, are expected shortly after 8 p.m. Official results will be known later in the night.
Here’s what to watch out for.
Will the far right win enough seats to obtain an absolute majority?
This will be the key question.
The first round of voting was dominated by the National Rally, a nationalist and anti-immigration party. An alliance of left-wing parties, the New Popular Front, came in second, while Mr Macron’s party and its allies came in third.
Seventy-six seats were won outright, half of them by the National Rally. The rest were awarded in the second round.
More than 300 constituencies were contested three-way until more than 200 candidates from left-wing parties and Mr Macron’s centrist coalition withdrew to avoid splitting the vote and try to prevent the far right from winning.
This will make it more difficult, but not impossible, for the National Rally and its allies to achieve an absolute majority.
Most French pollsters expect the National Rally and its allies to win between 175 and 240 seats, short of an absolute majority of 289. But if the National Rally and its allies win an absolute majority, they will almost certainly be able to form a government, and Mr. Macron, who has said he will stay in power, will have to work with them.
How will the country’s leadership work?
A conflictual outcome with Mr Macron as president and the leader of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister is possible, within the framework of what France calls cohabitation.
The French prime minister and government are responsible to the lower house and determine the country’s policy. They are, however, appointed by the president, who has extensive executive powers and is directly elected by the people.
Typically, the president and prime minister are politically aligned. (Every five years, France holds presidential and legislative elections within weeks of each other, making it likely that voters will cast two ballots for the same party.) But when the presidency and the National Assembly are at odds, the president has no choice but to appoint a prime minister from an opposing party—or someone lawmakers won’t overthrow with a vote of no confidence.
Cohabitation has already taken place between major left-wing leaders and conservative leaders, from 1986 to 1988, from 1993 to 1995 and from 1997 to 2002. But cohabitation between Mr Macron, a pro-European centrist, and Mr Bardella, a eurosceptic nationalist, would be unprecedented.
What if no one gets an absolute majority?
Polls suggest a likely scenario is a lower house split into three blocs with conflicting agendas and, in some cases, deep animosity toward each other – the National Rally, the New Popular Front and a slimmed-down centrist alliance including Mr Macron’s Renaissance party.
As things stand, no bloc appears able to find enough partners to form a majority, leaving Mr Macron with limited options.
“French political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers, noting that French institutions are designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern by themselves.”
“It would be the first time under the Fifth Republic that a government could not be formed due to a lack of a solid majority,” he declared.
Some analysts and politicians have suggested that a broad cross-party coalition could stretch from the Greens to the more moderate conservatives. But France is not used to forming coalitions, and several political leaders have ruled out that possibility.
Another possibility would be to set up an interim government that would manage day-to-day affairs until a political breakthrough is achieved. But this would also constitute a break with French tradition.
If none of these solutions work, the country could be heading for months of political deadlock.
Will the vote end in violence?
The campaign, one of the shortest in modern French history, was marked by a tense atmosphere, racist incidents and acts of violence.
A TV news report filmed a couple of National Rally supporters insulting a black neighbor, telling her to go to hell. A TV host of North African origin revealed a racist letter he received at his home. A bakery in Avignon was set on fire and covered in homophobic and racist graffiti.
French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said Friday that more than 50 people – candidates, their deputies or supporters – had been “physically attacked” during the campaign.
Authorities fear that post-election protests could turn violent. Authorities have deployed about 30,000 security forces across the country, including about 5,000 in the Paris region, to deal with possible unrest.
Catherine Porter contribution to the report.
