- Author, Sebastian Usher
- Role, BBC Middle East Analyst
- Report by Jerusalem
This is a first step in what could once again be a series of complex discussions aimed at finally bridging the gap between the Israeli government and Hamas over what each defines as its bottom line in what any potential deal might entail.
After Mr Barnea left Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said differences remained between the two sides. Israeli officials had previously said expectations needed to be lowered.
The latest resurgence of hope for a deal came after Hamas responded to the three-phase proposal presented by President Biden several weeks ago.
The key to this formulation was to push back against what has long emerged as the main obstacle to either side agreeing to a deal: Hamas’s demand for a permanent ceasefire and Israel’s counter-demand for freedom to resume fighting in Gaza if necessary.
Hamas’ proposal has not yet been made public. But the Israeli response appears to be much more positive than in other instances over the past seven months, when the process has regained momentum. A source within the Israeli negotiating team said that the proposal put forward by Hamas represented a “very significant step forward.”
There are indications that Hamas has accepted the key point of the proposal announced by President Biden: to allow negotiations to achieve its goal of a permanent end to the war through the first six-week phase of the ceasefire, rather than demanding it as a starting point.
Hamas has always resented the US portraying it as the main obstacle to reaching an agreement. If it turns out that it has indeed made this concession, the ball would then be in Mr Netanyahu’s court.
At no point has he given an inch to his public commitment to the complete eradication of Hamas – and to Israel’s right to continue fighting in Gaza after an eventual ceasefire. He has resisted all pressure from inside and outside Israel to change this position.
But the pressure on him is increasing from all sides, inexorably.
The latest move appears to come from within the military itself. A recent New York Times article, citing unnamed current and former security officials, claimed that Israeli generals “want to establish a cease-fire in Gaza, even if it keeps Hamas in power for now.”
Mr Netanyahu has dismissed the remarks as defeatist. But he may not be able to withstand such pressure forever, or the growing anger of those demanding the immediate repatriation of the Gaza hostages.
Hamas also sees growing signs of despair over the continuing war among those who suffer from it on a daily basis, Gaza’s civilian population. And internationally, the patience of mediators such as Egypt and Qatar may be running out.
Regional countries that strongly support the Palestinian cause are also putting increasing pressure on Hamas to accept a deal. Its leaders may see the group’s apparent survival, even if severely weakened politically and militarily, as sufficient to ensure its triumph.
For the international community, the need to find a solution to this war has become even more urgent, as the specter of confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into open war. A ceasefire in Gaza could potentially ease these tensions.
And for the Biden administration, still reeling from last week’s debate between the president and Donald Trump, a diplomatic success here would be a much-needed boost.
All these elements suggest that the hopes once again raised could this time finally prove more resistant to the negative factors that have already disappointed them.
