“If Kamala Harris wins the election, it will be a huge disappointment for the Kremlin,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politic, a Russian political consultancy now based in France, “not because they expect concrete anti-Russian measures, but because from their perspective, the very nature of American politics will be irrational, unrealistic and self-defeating.”
Stanovaya said Harris “represents what Moscow calls liberal terrorists, liberal dictators. With such a person in place it will be very difficult to end the conflict,” adding that “all windows will be closed.”
For Russia, President Trump’s chaos, his praise of authoritarian rulers like Vladimir Putin, and his condemnation of NATO and the European Union were gifts. Trump’s bold boast that he could end the Ukrainian war in a day suggested he could force Kiev to cede territory.
And despite his unprecedented military and financial aid to Ukraine, Biden has been viewed by many in Russian foreign policy circles as a product of the Cold War, when Russia was feared as a superpower rival. They see him as a predictable actor who won’t risk escalating into direct hostility with Russia and who understands and respects Russia’s large nuclear arsenal. “Under Biden, there was at least an understanding of the red lines that shouldn’t be crossed,” Stanovaya said.
Little known in Russia, Harris is viewed with caution: “Under Harris, the deep state will take control,” said Sergei Markov, a political analyst with ties to the Kremlin.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has waged a propaganda campaign aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in the West and promoting far-right, isolationist views, according to internal Kremlin documents previously reported by The Washington Post.
But Biden’s resignation marks Russia’s second recent unpleasant surprise in Western politics, following the unexpected defeat in French parliamentary elections of the far-right National Rally party, which Russia has supported as a political ally.
Some former Russian officials worry that Ms. Harris’ candidacy is a sign that the U.S. liberal establishment is engineering the election to thwart right-wing isolationist forces. Given the Kremlin’s influence over Russian elections, some Russians have a hard time believing they can be fair and truly unpredictable, or understanding the concept of coalition-building in a parliamentary political system.
“Just think about what happened in France,” said a former Russian official close to Putin. As with others in this article, the former official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues in diplomatic relations.
“There, the so-called right won by all indicators,” the former official said, referring to the National Coalition coming in first in the first round of voting. “But then the far-left joined the government party, and the faction with the most support got nothing. Can this really be called democracy?”
Liberal supporters The Democrats “have put a lot of effort into this and they are not going to just abandon this area,” a Putin aide said. “They will not make the same mistake twice.”
The Kremlin has avoided publicly commenting on Biden’s departure, but Russian propagandists have begun hurling scathing attacks at Harris, with one TV host calling her “crazy” and a prominent academic, Andrei Sidorov made racist comments, calling the mixed-race vice president “worse than a monkey with a grenade.”
Harris is not known for her deep involvement in foreign policy, but she has called Russia’s war against Ukraine “barbaric and inhumane.”
“Nobody expects anything good from her, “She is considered a hostage of the deep state and the level of uncertainty is likely to increase rather than decrease,” said a Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats. “Biden, no matter how you look at it, was a foreign policy expert at the highest level. It will be difficult for Kamala Harris to compete with him here.”
Trump, known for his good personal relationship with Putin, has consistently advocated isolationist policies and questioned the relevance of NATO. This month, Trump said he was considering easing sanctions on Russia and repeatedly vowed to end the war with Russia quickly, but did not say how.
But analysts and officials said they doubted Trump’s negotiating skills and worried he could be unpredictable.
““No one knows what will happen under a Trump administration,” Stanovaya said. “On the one hand, of course, there will be opportunities. But on the other hand, there is a realization that these opportunities could close very quickly, and that the situation could be much worse than under a Biden administration.”
Still, many in Russia’s elite are hoping that Trump will repair relations, one Russian business executive said. “They’re hoping that if he wins, it will mean at least an end to the tough sanctions, an end to the wars and less risk for Russian businesses. Nobody wants to lose money,” the executive said. “Republicans also dislike Putin, but they’re more pragmatic than Democrats.”
Russia scholars say any long-term hopes for change rest with Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Trump’s running mate for the Republican nomination. Vance has repeatedly advocated a pro-Moscow isolationist line, refusing to call Putin an “existential threat to Europe” at the Munich Security Conference this year and opposing aid to Ukraine in Congress.
“Vance is a very interesting person,” said the Russian scholar, noting that Trump is 78 years old. “It remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to complete his term if elected. We cannot rule out the possibility that Vance could become president. If that happens, it would be a major change in American politics.”
Stanovaya also suggested other ways Moscow could win. “The best-case scenario for Russia would be to have a U.S. leader who is strong enough to implement his proposals and get Congress to approve any agreement reached with Russia,” she said. “But this scenario is seen as highly unlikely. Putin wants something that no one can give him.”
“If this is not possible, the next scenario is that Moscow wants to burn everything down with blue flames. There would be chaos,” she said.
