Le Pen’s rise shows extent of polarization

“It’s a very, very tense period. And it’s the first time that the far right has won in the first round. [the first round of the ballot]”So this is a very important matter,” added Amel, a therapist who said she would vote for the left-wing New Popular Front.

“We are very concerned and we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell people who don’t vote to go and vote, and trying to convince people who vote for the far right that they are not a good answer. [to France’s problems]” . “

The far-right RN party rejects the “extremist” label, saying it defends French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with the French political establishment led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

But opponents and critics of the RN warn that France is on the brink of political catastrophe if an openly anti-immigration, nationalist and eurosceptic party wins a majority in these snap elections called by Macron after his party’s heavy defeat by the far right in June’s European elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now had a “moral duty” to stop the party’s advance.

For young left-wing voters like Amel, the RN’s rise in the polls and the fact that it won the most votes in the first round of the election last weekend are worrying developments that make them fear for French social cohesion.

“I am worried about the future of the country. I think the situation is going from bad to worse,” said Amel, who preferred to give only her first name because of the sensitive nature of the situation. “It will look like a kind of civil war. I hope it doesn’t happen, but people will no longer mix and will be afraid of each other. And that is very scary.”

The snap election has highlighted the country’s political polarization, with polls ahead of Sunday’s final round suggesting a deeply divided nation.

In the first round, the far-right RN won 33% of the vote, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) 28% and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Ensemble) 20% of the vote.

Since the results of the first round, the centre-right and left-wing parties have done everything they can to prevent the RN from progressing to the second round, seeking at all costs to prevent the party from obtaining a parliamentary majority. United within a “Republican Front”, the centrists and left-wing parties have withdrawn candidates in many constituencies where one of their candidates was better placed to beat the RN.

By offering voters more choice and fewer options, the anti-far-right front hopes that voters will vote for the non-RN candidate. Whether this will work remains to be seen, and analysts point out that French voters may not appreciate being told how to vote or for whom.

The final result on Sunday night – the outcome of a snap election that Macron did not need to call – will show how difficult it may be to find consensus in national politics and within government in the future.

France’s reaction to the result is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest, with the anti-government “yellow vest” movement of recent years and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.

The French Interior Ministry appears to be bracing for further tensions after Sunday’s vote, and is reportedly set to deploy around 30,000 police officers across France on Sunday night, fearing violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin reportedly said 5,000 police officers would be on duty in and around Paris to “ensure that the radical right and the radical left do not take advantage of the situation to cause chaos.”

French police have sometimes been accused of being brutal towards protesters during previous periods of unrest, firing water cannons and tear gas at “yellow vest” demonstrators in 2019.

A member of the gendarmerie, the French military force responsible for maintaining order and public order, told CNBC that “the French elections are a disaster” and that “the public divide has rarely been so blatant in France.”

“People’s opinions are increasingly divided and it’s reflected in everyday life,” the officer, who asked not to be named because of the nature of his job, told CNBC.

The officer, a father of three in his forties and a right-wing voter, said the polarisation of French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal given the ‘diversity’ of our society”.

“More and more people with different values ​​and backgrounds are being forced to live together, and that’s clearly not working,” said the officer, who works in Bordeaux, in southwest France.

“I worry about the future of the country because we are too generous to people who do not want to integrate and contribute to our society, this cannot continue.”

The police officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, regardless of which party won the most votes.

“There will be civil unrest, no matter who is elected, this is France and the people are expressing their opinion.”

Political experts agree that the current febrile atmosphere in French politics and the antagonism between the main constituencies are the ingredients for a new civil unrest.

“We have here all the recipes for an ultra-polarized political scene and this of course translates into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“If only 33 to 34 percent of people vote for the far right, that means that the rest of the people are wary of it or completely opposed to it, which will be reflected at all levels of politics: institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, but also in society. You will have a very polarized society in which young people, ethnic minorities, women and especially feminists will be very worried,” he said.

Marlière does not rule out the possibility of violence in the streets if a far-right party is elected to government. “We are not there yet. But if there are policies that are very unpopular, very antagonistic and very hostile to certain groups, there will be demonstrations of such magnitude that there will be unrest in the streets,” he said.

Like other far-right parties across Europe, the National Rally has been able to exploit voters’ concerns about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. Jordan Bardella, 28, the National Rally’s leader, promised voters that he would “restore order,” limit immigration and fight crime. But he and Marine Le Pen, the party’s figurehead, have backtracked on some of their most strident promises and rhetoric, including backtracking on France’s withdrawal from NATO and toning down the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.

Bardella said he would still support sending weapons to Ukraine, but not deploying ground troops, as Macron has suggested.

It is unclear whether the National Rally would be forced to implement many of the measures even if the party were to win over the government. The Republican Front also appears confident as the second round approaches that its strategy to reduce the RN’s share of the vote is bearing fruit.

According to an Ifop poll published on July 3, voters could lean towards a pro-Macron or left-wing centrist candidate rather than the RN candidate if that is the choice offered to them on the ballot paper on Sunday. On the other hand, if the choice falls on a far-left or far-right candidate, the picture is more nuanced, with a split vote.

Analysts predict that the RN is less likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but is still likely to win the most votes, creating a scenario of a parliament without an absolute majority and a headache for Macron and uncertainty for France’s political and economic prospects.

“The political landscape is in turmoil and can’t really function anymore, at least not under the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC on Thursday.

“We are in a situation so far removed from our traditions and our political habits that it is very difficult for each stakeholder to adapt to this new situation.”