Top Line
Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Nevada and Georgia, according to a new Emerson College/Fox News poll, signaling a turnaround for Democrats as Harris benefits from increased support among Black people, women and young people.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivered the keynote address for the American Federation of Teachers. … [+]
Key Facts
Georgia: A Fox poll conducted Aug. 23-26 gave Harris a two-point lead among registered voters, 48% to 50%, while an Emerson poll conducted Aug. 25-28 gave her a one-point lead among likely voters, 49% to 48%,.
Nevada: The Emerson poll gives Harris a one-point lead, 49% to 48%, while Fox gives her a two-point lead, 48% to 50%.
Arizona: According to Emerson, Harris is trailing Trump by three points (47% to 50%) but leading by one point in the Fox poll.
North Carolina: Trump holds one-point leads in both the Fox (50% to 49%) and Emerson College (49% to 48%) polls.
Pennsylvania: While the Emerson poll had Harris and Trump tied at 48 percent, a Cook Political Report poll of 2,867 voters conducted July 26-August 2 showed Harris leading Trump by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent of voters undecided. This was an improvement over the three-point lead Trump had over Biden in a Cook poll from May.
Michigan: Harris leads Trump by three points in both the Emerson (50% to 47%) and Cook (49% to 46%) polls. Trump had a two-point lead in a May poll.
Wisconsin: While the Emerson poll had Harris trailing Trump by one point, 49% to 48%, Cook projected her to beat Trump by three points, 49% to 46%. (Cook said Trump and Biden were tied in May.)
tangent
A recent New York Times poll found that Harris is garnering more support from younger voters, non-white voters and women who were on the fence before Biden dropped out, and the poll showed that she has the support of 84% of black voters, higher than Biden’s approval rating before he dropped out of the race in July.
Big numbers
1 point, which is an overall score showing Harris leading in seven battleground states, according to the Cook Poll.
Main Background
Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue to campaign amid a party rebellion following his performance at the June 27 debate. Biden quickly endorsed Harris, who announced her plans to seek the nomination, and in the first week of August, 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call, officially making her the candidate. Before Biden withdrew from the race, polls had consistently shown Trump beating Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven states (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
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