A bloody candidate raises his fist in defiance after surviving an assassination attempt.
It remains to be seen how the assassination attempt on Donald Trump will affect the 2024 presidential election, but the photo of the former president being hurriedly escorted off the stage at a rally in Pennsylvania has already achieved iconic status.
This disruptor, whom many see as a clear and present threat to democracy and the rule of law, has himself become the victim, and survivor, of the ultimate act of political violence.
Democratic Representative from Pennsylvania, John Fettermanwarned Sunday that the attack should not become “an opportunity for politics or strategy or how this will play out.”
But the dynamics of the Republican national nominating convention, which begins Monday in the Midwestern city of Milwaukee, are sure to shift along with the wider campaign as Trump seeks to politicize his ordeal.
An often controversial figure but a savvy campaigner with unwavering political instincts, Trump took the upper hand on Sunday, calling for Americans to come together to “not let evil win.”
Milwaukee may have expected a Trump parade anyway, but Trump’s brush with death will give him near-mythic status among the expected 50,000 attendees who already see the Republican heavyweight as their warrior and defender.
– Description of complaint –
The photo of Trump with his fist raised as an American flag flutters overhead, which has appeared on the front pages of newspapers around the world and gone viral on social media, is probably worth more than the most extravagant advertising campaign.
The message of the election was one of contrast, and Mr. Trump seized the opportunity to demonstrate courage and fortitude that voters will contrast with weeks of dire headlines about the president. Joe BidenWeakness.
Importantly, this attack is tied to Trump’s narrative of frustration that Democrats are targeting his base, and his insistence that he is now literally taking the brunt of arrows and stones so they don’t have to.
Discussing the impact of the shooting on the convention, former Democratic White House strategist David Axelrod predicted on CNN that Trump would be “greeted as a martyr of sorts.”
Meanwhile, his Republican opponents will likely find it harder to criticize the former president.
Biden has recently been battling Trump, aggressively portraying his predecessor as a threat to democracy.
But the message may be ignored by targets who barely escape with their lives in an act that many consider akin to domestic terrorism.
According to multiple media outlets, the Biden campaign said it had “suspended all outside communications and is working to cease television advertising as soon as possible” in response to the assassination attempt.
Biden also postponed a planned visit to Texas on Monday.
– Lasting impact? –
On the upside for Democrats, attacking Trump addresses a more pressing problem for Biden.
The president has been heavily criticized for his lackluster performance at last month’s debate with President Donald Trump in Atlanta, where he struggled to complete sentences, let alone make a clear case for the next four years.
As the two parties sparred over whose political rhetoric was most responsible for inciting violence, scathing headlines for Democrats that had dominated the paper every day were suddenly being pushed further back or erased entirely.
It may also be difficult for Biden’s opponents within his party to seriously challenge his candidacy without being seen as blatant opportunists at a time of national crisis.
In terms of the impact on the vote itself, it seems clear that Trump will gain some support from Americans angered by the shootings and the anti-Trump rhetoric that many Republicans allege contributed to them.
But veteran pollster Frank Luntz said the long-term benefits may have more to do with increasing voter turnout than with switching agnostics.
“In the end, voters will calm down and return to their candidate of choice. Those who moved to Trump out of sympathy will likely move back,” he posted on X.
“But what happened (in Pennsylvania) will certainly impact the final vote and ensure that everyone who voted for Trump actually voted.”
Luntz believes the turnout gap could be as much as 2 percentage points nationwide, and it would be even more pronounced in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state that Biden must defend if he wants to have any hope of winning the November election.
“This doesn’t guarantee that Trump will take back Pennsylvania, but it makes the long and winding road for Joe Biden even longer and more winding,” Luntz added.
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