The calendar has turned to July and football season is getting closer. The 2024 season is one that Virginia Tech fans are excited about, as they return most of their production from last season and are one of the most experienced teams in the country. Another leap forward from quarterback Kyron Drones and improvements in other areas could result in their first ACC Championship appearance since 2016.
The schedule is also very favorable, which is one of the reasons why analysts who cover the sport have picked Virginia Tech as an underdog in the ACC. However, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+, the Hokies only have the 7th-best odds to win the conference. In his ACC preview released today, Connelly listed each ACC team’s odds to win the conference and the odds to win six or more games and he gave Virginia Tech a 5.8% chance to win the ACC and a 97.3% chance to win six or more games. Virginia Tech is behind Florida State, Clemson, Miami, SMU, Louisville and NC State.
Here’s what Connelly had to say about the Hokies ahead of the 2024 season:
2024 Projection: 32nd in SP+, 8.4 wins average (5.1 in ACC)
“NC State may have won the official Late-Year Darling award, but Brent Pry’s Hokies came close, going from No. 76 in SP+ after a 2-4 start to finishing with five wins in seven games and a No. 46 final ranking. And unlike the Packers, they get back their starting quarterback (Kyron Drones) and, for that matter, pretty much everyone else. They rank fourth nationally in return production, first on offense, and after six years outside the top 30 in SP+, they’ll have a chance to end that streak.
Tech’s (2-4) start to the season was plagued by a directionless offense that averaged just 5.0 yards per play. But once Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten, both transfers, got their bearings, the Hokies were transformed. They’re averaging 34.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play over the last seven games, and Drones heads into 2024 with Tuten, his entire offensive line and the receiving corps he was supposed to have all along. Last year’s top receivers Da’Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane are back, as are 2023 injury victims Ali Jennings III (a former ODU star) and tight end Nick Gallo.
The Hokies had one of the best pass defenses in the country last season, ranking fourth in sacks per dropback, 15th in pass completion rate allowed and 23rd in QBR allowed. Ace pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 TFL, 9.5 sacks) is back, and Pry added one of the nation’s top defensive tackles in Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles (5 sacks) (290 pounds) and a speedy blitzer in Middle Tennessee’s Sam Brumfield (22.9 percent pressure rate). Add in veteran corners Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane and a dynamic nickel in Keonta Jenkins (12 TFL), and there’s no reason to think the pass defense will be any less effective. If there was a problem, it came in the run defense, where Tech allowed plenty of nicks. Three of last year’s top four tackles are gone, and while Peebles and two other tackle transfers could improve things in that regard, it’s not a guarantee.
My favorite player: QB Kyron Drones. Drones passed starter Grant Wells early in the season, but he’s only managed a 44.0 QBR through the first four games of 2023, completing 55% of his passes with a 23% sack rate and just one TD pass.
The rest of the season: 60% completion, 6% sack rate, 16 TDs, just two interceptions, 82.7 yards per game without a sack and a total QBR of 76.9. Coordinator Tyler Bowen understood that, and he understood ACC defenses. With Tuten getting a similar boost (3.9 yards per carry in seven games, 6.2 from there), Tech had one of the best backfields in the Eastern time zone by the end of the season.
But what exactly is SP+ and what goes into these rankings? Here’s how Connelly puts his rankings in his own words:
“I base SP+ projections on three main factors, weighted by their predictive nature:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters that I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ grades and adjustments based on returning production makes up about half of the projection formula.
2. Recent Recruiting. This article tells us the caliber of potential replacements (and/or new stars) a team has on its roster. It is determined by the recruiting rankings of the last few years in descending order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Starting this season, I also factor in transfers—both quality and volume—in a different way. After last season’s transfer-focused recruiting shift, I have a bit more data on how to handle this. This article makes up about a third of the projection formula.
3. Recent History. Using a sample of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of the overall health of the program. It stands to reason that a team that played well for one year is less likely to replicate that effort than a team that has been good for years (and vice versa), right? It’s a minor piece of the puzzle—only about 15 percent—but the projections are better with it than without.
A reminder about SP+: This is a pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football’s effectiveness. It’s a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking, and, in the same spirit, these projections are not meant to be an estimate of what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year.
I would probably give Virginia Tech a better chance, but I don’t think the odds are that high. This season is shaping up to be a good one for Brent Pry and Virginia Tech, but they need to take full advantage of it.
