This is a narrated essay based on a transcribed conversation with David’s Heada historian specializing in American history, author, and lecturer at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, FL. This article has been edited for length and clarity.
When I first read that the former President had been shot, I was shocked.
Then came the sinking feeling that we were plunged into the chaos of the 1960s and 70s, when political assassinations, bombings and riots marred campaigns in the US and globally.
Working as a historian and lecturer at the University of Central Florida, I am interested in conspiracy thinking in American politics, both in the early and late 20th centuries, particularly the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963
However, I don’t think those efforts will have a significant impact on the outcome of the 2024 election. Throughout history, an election has been won or lost based on the context in which it occurs, not the attempted murder.
The assassination attempt most similar to Trump’s resulted in defeat
The closest parallel, though very different, is the 1912 assassination attempt. Theodore Roosevelt when he ran for president. Like Trump, Roosevelt had already been president but left office four years after two terms, leaving Republican William Howard Taft as president.
For the 1912 election, Taft won the official Republican nomination, but Roosevelt decided to run as an independent third-party candidate. They both ran against Democratic candidate Woodrow Wilson.
At a campaign event in Milwaukee on October 14, 1912Roosevelt was shot while in his car on his way to a campaign speech.
Despite his injuries, he attended the event and delivered a speech. Roosevelt understood the drama of delivering his speech with a blood-stained shirt.
Like Roosevelt, Trump is a show-off. He probably doesn’t have to think about how to react — he knows how powerful the media’s image of defiance can be.
Roosevelt’s popularity soared after the incident. The shooting occurred in October, so very close to the general election.
But in the end, the Republicans were split between Taft and Roosevelt. He lost to Wilson. Whether Roosevelt was shot or not, the dynamics of the election campaign did not change.
The assassinations of JFK and Robert Kennedy produced different electoral outcomes
After the assassination of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963, Lyndon B. Johnson became president. Johnson enjoyed significant popularity — for more than Approval rate 75% — following Kennedy’s assassination. He used that popularity to win the 1964 US election in a landslide.
However, Johnson’s popularity declined as the Vietnam War dragged on and the end of his term. In 1968, declining support among Democrats caused him to end his presidential bid early in the campaign.
While seeking the Democratic nomination, Robert F. Kennedy, a professor at New York University was shot and killed after a campaign event in Los Angeles in 1968. Thanks to his brother’s legacy, he became a strong candidate to replace Johnson and run against Nixon.
The assassination of Robert Kennedy made it easier for Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, to win the Democratic nomination. However, Robert Kennedy’s death and the chaos surrounding it reinforced the image of a Democratic Party in disarray. Richard Nixon, leading a unified Republican Party, won the presidency in 1968.
Two tragic deaths had opposing political outcomes based on racial context.
The dynamics of political competition are more influential than the assassination attempt
In 1975, a year before the next presidential election, Republican President Gerald Ford was shot twice. Ford had taken over the presidency after Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 following The Watergate Scandal.
Ford pardoned Nixon and tried to forget Watergate, but Republicans could not overcome Nixon’s ugliness and Ford’s denial of his wrongdoing.
Ford ultimately lost the 1976 election because of the fundamental dynamics of the race — the assassination attempt had no impact.
As this race shows, elections can change quickly.
And now, there’s Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Trump has included the killing in his speech and social media messages. His ear was bandaged when he spoke at the Republican convention, and he recently said he was “taking risks for democracy.”
I hope this will be part of his campaign from now on. The shooting has cheered the party in Republic Convention days later.
The intensity of Republican enthusiasm at the convention played a role in Biden’s decision to withdraw. Biden was already facing calls to resign over concerns that his health would prevent him from winning in November.
But, as in this historic assassination attempt, it is the context of the campaign that matters on election day.
There’s no doubt about Trump at this point. He’s been dominating political and cultural discussions since 2015. If people’s opinions aren’t already made up, I don’t think this shooting will change that.
Kamala Harris now has a chance to make a first impression as a presidential candidate. Let’s see what she does with it.
While it is helpful to consider the outcomes of past presidential assassination attempts and what they mean for our future, they are also not definitive. Things can change very quickly, as they have repeatedly during the current campaign.
