Even when countries and companies commit to climate action, there is no guarantee that they will keep their promises. After all, the planet is getting significantly hotter every year, with record temperatures in India in May being the latest example. If companies and countries kept their commitments in full, the rate of global warming would very likely be slowing down. One reason companies and countries don’t keep their commitments is a simple lack of transparency.
This is where technology comes in. We now have the tools to look at the climate and what’s happening exactly, in near real time. For example, we can look at the average difference between what 42 of the largest oil and gas producers say they are emitting and what they are actually emitting. actually The amount released is enormous.
At Kayrros, we calculated this by modeling the methane intensity of upstream oil and gas activities, assuming different regions where production takes place and different production volumes. We combined satellite-derived and artificial intelligence (AI)-processed data, public estimates of methane emissions, country-level oil and gas production data, and company self-reporting. On average, our models show 16.1 times higher methane intensity than companies reported. This is primarily due to the fact that regional production profiles vary widely, which can have a significant impact on the modeled methane intensity values.
But with advances in Earth observation technology, we can see that this is not all. We can see that (despite great skepticism) the overwhelming majority of forest conservation and restoration projects linked to voluntary carbon markets are working and therefore can and should be considered as a viable and effective means of directing funds from big polluters in the Global North to managers of forest resources in the Global South. Last June, we used our Forest Carbon Monitor to assess more than 90% of the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest and one of the world’s largest carbon sinks. According to an analysis performed with AI processing terabytes of satellite data, only five of the 75 reviewed conservation and emission reduction projects funded by carbon markets showed the same static deforestation rate. In other words, 96% were working. A recent analysis of 115 REDD+ projects (98 of which are operational) across the Amazon and Africa found similar results. In other words, Earth observation technology can now allow the world to see who is delivering on their promises and who is not.
The same technology uncovered a disturbing fact: Most signatories to the Global Methane Pledge have not kept their commitments. The pledge, to reduce methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, is based on the solid scientific fact that methane is 84 times more toxic than carbon dioxide during its first 20 years in the atmosphere. Achieving the GMP could therefore limit warming to more than 0.2°C by 2050. That countries are not keeping these commitments suggests that national leaders view them as contingent, which weakens past and future climate commitments and effectively suggests that they are optional.
Climate action must transcend political and ideological debates. It ultimately depends on the stability of the social context in which it is implemented. As the planet gets hotter and nation-state and corporate promises go unfulfilled, society begins to feel uneasy. We have the technology to design laws and regulations to ensure that climate action is as targeted, unintrusive and cost-effective as possible. There are less than five months until the COP. Commitments must be firm and durable, and can be sustained even when other things happen, because there is always something else happening.
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