The possibility of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election has significant implications for US domestic and foreign policy. During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, he pursued an “America First” agenda that included economic nationalism, strict immigration policies, and a critical view of multilateralism. If Trump succeeds in winning a second term, similar themes will likely resurface, with significant implications for global geopolitics, including bilateral relations between Indonesia and the United States.
This essay aims to analyze the potential impacts that a second Trump term could have on Indonesia, specifically examining the economic, political and social dimensions. A major goal of Trump’s presidency was to address trade imbalances, and his administration frequently implemented tariffs as a way to renegotiate existing trade agreements, disrupting global trade dynamics. If Trump is re-elected, he is likely to continue this approach, a move that could have far-reaching consequences for Indonesia.
Indonesia, which exported $20 billion worth of goods to the United States in 2021, may face new challenges in its bilateral relations. Former US President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, particularly if the US deficit with Indonesia remains large, could target Indonesian products. As a result, trade agreements will likely need to be renegotiated frequently, putting increased pressure on Indonesia to further open its markets to U.S. goods and services. The implementation of higher tariffs and trade barriers could hinder Indonesia’s access to the US market, which could impact key sectors such as textiles, electronics and agricultural products. To lessen their reliance on the U.S. market, Indonesian exporters may need to strategically reorient and diversify their markets.
Trump’s economic policies could also impact foreign direct investment (FDI). U.S. investors concerned about regulatory uncertainties and protectionist measures may reconsider their investment strategies. On the other hand, Indonesia could attract investors looking to circumvent U.S. tariffs by establishing production in Southeast Asia. If Trump were to serve a second term, the United States would likely pursue a more assertive foreign policy. Indonesia may have to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape due to the Trump administration’s approach to alliances and rivalries. The increased US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region could strengthen security cooperation, but also risks embroiling Indonesia in regional conflicts, including those in the South China Sea, where tensions between United States and China are important.
Although Indonesia advocates a neutral position, it must carefully balance its diplomatic relations. Trump’s confrontational approach to China could further exacerbate regional tensions. As a nation with significant economic ties to the United States and China, Indonesia must effectively manage its relations to avoid becoming entangled in trade or military conflicts, requiring skillful diplomatic maneuvering to maintain stability and economic growth.
During Trump’s presidency, the United States withdrew from various international agreements and organizations. A second Trump term could potentially lead to further disengagement from global institutions, impacting collaborative efforts on issues such as climate change and public health. To compensate for reduced U.S. involvement, Indonesia, an active participant in global forums, may need to establish new partnerships or strengthen regional cooperation within ASEAN.
Trump’s immigration policies and nationalist rhetoric have had social and cultural impacts, both domestically and internationally, that could persist or intensify during a second term. These policies could affect interactions between Indonesian citizens and the United States. Stricter U.S. immigration laws could impact Indonesian students, professionals, and tourists. Visa restrictions could lead to a decline in educational exchanges, limiting opportunities for Indonesians to study in the United States. Indonesian professionals could face greater difficulties obtaining work visas, affecting their ability to contribute to and benefit from the U.S. economy. Travel bans and restrictive visa policies may decrease cultural and educational exchanges, weakening bilateral relations. Therefore, efforts to promote cultural diplomacy may be necessary to counteract these restrictions and maintain people-to-people ties.
A possible second Trump term could deviate significantly from international norms on environmental policy. The Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord demonstrates a lack of commitment to global climate initiatives. If the United States withdraws from international climate agreements, it could undermine global efforts to combat climate change, particularly affecting vulnerable countries like Indonesia. Without U.S. support, Indonesia’s participation in international environmental initiatives could be hampered, potentially impacting funding and facing political barriers for collaborative projects focused on sustainable development, energy renewables and conservation. Therefore, Indonesia may need to rely more on regional and multilateral partners to achieve its environmental goals. The re-election of Donald Trump in 2024 would undoubtedly impact bilateral relations between Indonesia and the United States, with economic implications manifesting through the renegotiation of trade agreements and fluctuating investment flows. Political and diplomatic challenges could arise due to increased tensions between the United States and China, as well as changes in strategic alliances. Social and cultural ties could be strained by immigration restrictions, and environmental collaboration could suffer due to divergent climate policies.
In conclusion, Indonesia’s advantageous geographic position and growing economic relevance will require judicious diplomacy and adaptable economic strategies. Strengthening regional collaboration within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), expanding trade alliances and building national resilience will be imperative measures to offset the consequences of the presidency Trump. The prospects of the bilateral relationship depend on Indonesia’s ability to manage its interests amid changing global dynamics.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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