REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the twenty-sixth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 28 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind disasters, drought and volcanic activity. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to Badan National Penanggulangan Bencana French (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides and wind-related disasters were reported in East Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, North Sumatra, Gorontalo, North Moluccas, North Sulawesi, South Sumatra, Aceh and West Java, while drought was reported in Central Java. In the Philippines, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported flash floods in Sultan Kudarat in Region XII. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding in Lampang in the Northern region. Finally, the Vietnam Dyke and Disaster Management Authority (VDDMA) has documented storms, landslides and wind-related disasters in the North, Central and South regions.
EMPHASIZE:
During week 26, high average rainfall over northern parts of Sulawesi and the Moluccas led to flooding and landslides, as reported by BNPB. In Central and North Sulawesi, floods and landslides affected 16.1 thousand people and damaged 3.2 thousand houses, three of which were totally damaged. In Gorontalo, 9,400 people were flooded, 440 were displaced and 2,400 houses were damaged. Meanwhile, in the northern Moluccas, around 1.1 thousand people and 244 houses were affected by the floods.
In the Philippines, the development of the INVEST 98W project, which was located along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulted in continuous heavy rains that affected southern regions. This caused a flash flood that affected 441 families, or about 1,400 people, in Sultan Kudarat, Region XII (DSWD). Local authorities visited the affected areas, conducted assessments and mobilized resources to support the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC) shows 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of the ASEAN region, including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, in Indonesia (Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, Sulawesi, West Java and Papua), Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. The high average precipitation over the Philippines is attributed to easterly winds, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the development of INVEST 98W which continued and eventually dissipated over Mindanao (PAGASA). At the time of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone warnings for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Badan in Indonesia Meteorology, climatology and geophysics (BMKG) and the Malaysia Meteorological Agency (JMM). Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (Alert Level III) and Ibu (Alert Level III) in Indonesia, as well as Mayon Volcano (Alert Level 1), Taal (Alert Level 1), Kanlaon (Alert Level 2) and Bulusan (Alert Level 1) in the Philippines have reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanology and mitigation Bencana Geology (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC), the wetter conditions of the previous week are expected to persist over much of mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, although with less confidence in the Philippines. Warmer than usual temperatures are forecast over the southern half of Southeast Asia over the next fortnight. There is a slight increase in the risk of very heavy rainfall over northern Myanmar, particularly over the northwest region. There is a slight increase in the risk of extremely hot conditions over the southern coast of mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Philippines, East Borneo, South Sulawesi and Java. Although there is an increase in the risk of temperatures above the 90th percentile over the west coast of Sumatra, the region tends to be cooler and the risk of extremely hot conditions is low. The ENSO status is now at neutral conditions.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: DSWD, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Vietnam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
