After winning a hard-fought election, Indonesia’s new president faces domestic opposition and competing pressures from the United States and China.
In a word
- Indonesia’s new president will be caught between China and the United States
- Prabowo Subianto also faces domestic economic and political headwinds
- Indonesia will likely seek to avoid choosing sides between major powers
Indonesians went to the polls in February in the world’s largest one-day election and installed the government of Prabowo Subianto. The newly elected president will face tough diplomatic choices, including rising tensions in the South China Sea and intensifying rivalry between China and the United States, two of its key partners.
In this country of 270 million people, the vote was not without its challenges. The declared winner officially received more than 58% of the vote. Mr. Prabowo, a former army general, ran twice in previous presidential elections. He lost both times to Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, before joining the winner’s cabinet as defense minister. In previous elections, he had presented himself as a nationalist and a strong leader, although some questioned his temperament.
Mr. Prabowo’s image has since evolved into that of a more benign, “grandfatherly” figure, so much so that his dance moves have become a hit on social media. The contrast with his 2014 and 2019 campaigns appears to be easing concerns among some voters about his human rights record. Some groups have accused Mr. Prabowo, who until recently was banned from entering the United States, of human rights abuses while he was a special forces commander during the Suharto era; Mr. Prabowo has denied the allegations.
Before this year’s election, Jokowi was initially expected to support Ganjar Pranowo, a former governor of Central Java who is also seen as a modest and engaging pluralist, and who comes from Jokowi’s ruling Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). Those traits were seen as ideal for appealing to Indonesian public opinion. According to a 2023 poll, however, of the 81% of Indonesians satisfied with Jokowi’s performance as president, support for his potential successors was split between Mr. Ganjar (about 40%) and Mr. Prabowo (30%).
Jokowi ultimately threw his support behind his former rival Mr Prabowo, while the president’s eldest son Gibran (mayor of Solo, Central Java) was chosen as his running mate. The Prabowo-Gibran government is expected to continue Jokowi’s flagship mission, which has yet to be accomplished: the construction of the new capital, Nusantara, in East Kalimantan. Indeed, Mr Prabowo has made no secret of his intention to maintain Jokowi’s policies at the head of state.
Democratic decline
The other two candidates in the election decided to challenge the result in the Constitutional Court, citing numerous irregularities. The candidates also challenged the inclusion of Mr. Gibran, 36, on Mr. Prabowo’s list, citing the requirement that vice presidents be at least 40 years old. Mr. Gibran had been barred from running at the last minute by the Constitutional Court. The court’s president (who happens to be Jokowi’s brother-in-law) was later dismissed by an ethics committee tasked with making the decision, but the verdict was deemed binding regardless.
In addition, in the run-up to the election, the government has disbursed a considerable amount of social assistance, approximately $30 billion, almost equivalent to the funds made available during the COVID-19 pandemic and 12% more than last year’s social assistance figures.
On April 22, the Constitutional Court sealed Mr. Prabowo’s victory, rejecting the petitioners’ appeal and ruling that there was no evidence of fraud or state intervention that could have significantly changed the outcome. The court also found no evidence that Jokowi and his administration circumvented laws to support Mr. Prabowo.
The dynamics of the election campaign, however, suggest a democratic backlash. Mr Prabowo’s growing popularity is due to the support Jokowi enjoys, as the first president to come from outside Jakarta’s elite, remains widely popular in the country but would not be able to run for a third term. Some have suggested that appointing Jokowi’s eldest son as vice president would allow his father to continue to rule by proxy, but that will depend on how Mr Prabowo, 72, shapes his deputy’s role.
Another question is how the country’s ongoing corruption will affect potential foreign investment. So far, the newly elected government has yet to come up with a plan to tackle the problem. According to Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Indonesia’s score remains unchanged at 34, ranking 115th globally, down five spots from the previous year. Corruption will likely pose additional challenges for foreign investors looking to seize large-scale opportunities.
A geopolitical balancing act
Amid rising tensions in the oil-rich South China Sea, Indonesia’s elections are being closely watched by the United States and China. The latter has been aggressive in the region, particularly toward the Philippines. Indonesia’s new leader is expected to continue to focus on maintaining economic growth, suggesting that friendly relations with Washington and Beijing will be of paramount importance.
In recent months, the United States has stepped up its diplomatic activities and conducted joint military exercises with its Southeast Asian allies, including Indonesia. But relations with Washington face many challenges for the new government in Jakarta.
If Indonesian officials signal a willingness to cooperate more militarily with the United States, the fallout from Hamas’s 2023 attack on Israel could affect relations with Indonesia. Indonesia has expressed support for the Palestinian cause, recently thanking Spain, Norway, and Ireland for formally recognizing the State of Palestine. The government also appealed to European countries for a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas at a ministerial meeting in Brussels. The ongoing war in Gaza, as well as the Biden administration’s continued (if nuanced) support for Israel, could sour relations with Indonesia.
At the same time, Indonesia remains concerned about China’s aggressive behavior, as demonstrated by the incident in March between China and the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands. Beijing asserts sovereignty over the area despite a 2016 ruling by a UN Convention on the Law of the Sea tribunal that its claims lacked legal merit. While Sino-Indonesian relations are good for now, tensions over the South China Sea disputes could flare up again. One such flashpoint could be China and Indonesia’s competing claims to the gas-rich Natuna Sea.
Scenarios
More likely: Balancing US-China relations
In the past, Jokowi has been able to secure significant investments from China, including $11.5 billion from one of the world’s largest glassmakers to build a manufacturing plant in the country and a deal for the already popular $7.3 billion high-speed rail project, which links Jakarta and the West Java capital, cutting commutes from four hours to 40 minutes. Unsurprisingly, Mr. Prabowo visited China shortly after the election, a sign that bilateral relations will remain strong.
Indonesia is unlikely to seek to take sides or formally align itself with any major power. Mr. Prabowo will likely continue Jokowi’s popular policies, as he pledged to do during the campaign. His predecessor, known for avoiding open criticism of Washington or Beijing, managed to balance defense cooperation with the former and foreign investment with the latter.
Less likely: Greater cooperation with U.S. efforts to counter China
Despite commitments to military cooperation with Washington, and unlike the Philippines, Indonesia remains unlikely to host a US military base in the country. Under successive governments, Indonesia has maintained a free and active foreign policy, non-aligned with the major powers, and supports the central role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the context of great power rivalry.
To be sure, Mr. Prabowo’s past positions have painted a different picture. In 2019, he was highly critical of Chinese investment in Indonesia, saying at the time that he would review such deals if elected and strongly opposed foreign influence. Yet his stance changed after he joined Joko Widodo’s administration as defense minister. For example, his response to the presence of Chinese fishing vessels in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea, a clear sovereignty issue, was seen as rather mild.
Mr Prabowo will not be sworn in until October, and his cabinet appointments will play a major role in shaping the country’s policy. Indonesia’s position in ASEAN will indirectly affect its approach to the South China Sea as well as its broader relations with the United States and China. The sustainability of Joko Widodo’s foreign policy will depend on the new president’s determination to deliver on his campaign promises.
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