beginning Paddy production in 2024 is expected to be lower than average due to dry weather conditions.
2024 Harvest beginning Paddy harvesting, which accounts for about 40% of annual production, ended in May 2024, about eight weeks later in some areas. The October-April rainy season began at the end of November 2023, with rains remaining unreliable until late December due to the El Niño weather phenomenon. Rainfall improved in most areas from January 2024 onwards, allowing planting and improving yields for later-planted crops. However, areas of below-average rainfall continued into mid-May in the major rice-producing regions of Sumatra and Java. Overall, beginning Paddy production is estimated to be below average, reflecting reduced area due to dry weather conditions. Number 2 Paddy planting, which is mostly irrigated and accounts for about 30% of annual production, began in early May after the delayed harvest of the main crop was completed. To mitigate the adverse impact of dry conditions on the harvest of the first crop of the season, the government has taken measures to provide supplementary irrigation, including the installation of water pumps, and has increased the amount of subsidized fertilizer and the number of farmers receiving it compared to 2023. Remote sensing data from mid-June 2024 shows good vegetation conditions over much of the country, inferring generally good harvest prospects (ASI map). 2024 planting The third Paddy harvesting, which accounts for about 20 percent of annual production, is expected to begin in August.
2024 Harvest Rainy season Corn harvesting, which accounts for about 55% of annual production, was delayed by about two months due to a delayed start to the season, and ended in May. Due to dry weather in the first half of the harvest season, production is expected to be lower than usual. dry season Maize, which accounts for approximately 45% of the annual production, is currently in the flowering and fruiting stages and the condition of the crop is generally good.
Weather forecasts predict that much of the country will experience higher than average rainfall between July and September 2024, improving irrigation water supplies and creating favorable growing conditions for late-planted crops. However, excessive rainfall during crop maturity and harvesting could reduce yields and limit field work, negatively impacting final production. In addition, some regions are expected to experience higher than average temperatures, increasing the risk of pest and disease outbreaks.
Paddy production to be below average in 2023
Total grain production (mainly rice and corn) in 2023 is estimated at 68.4 million tonnes, slightly below average. Paddy production in 2023 is estimated at 54.0 million tonnes, below average. Corn production in 2023 is estimated at an average level of 14.5 million tonnes.
Grain import demand forecast to approach record high in 2024/25
Total grain import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 15.7 million tonnes, close to the previous year’s record level. Wheat imports, which account for the majority of the country’s grain imports, are forecast to remain at a high level of 11.5 million tonnes due to population growth and rising domestic consumption of wheat-based foods. Rice imports for calendar year 2024 are forecast at 2.9 million tonnes, mainly reflecting the government’s expectation of importing large amounts of rice to replenish official stockpiles and to contain rising domestic prices. Maize imports are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, well above average, due to strong demand from the poultry industry.
Rice prices to rise in May 2024 compared to last year
Domestic prices for rice, the country’s staple food, rose gradually from July 2023 to March 2024, reflecting concerns over a smaller 2023 harvest and the impact of dry weather conditions on the 2024 crop. Higher production and transportation costs contributed to the price increase. Despite a seasonal decline in April and May, prices remained about 15% higher than the previous year’s high.
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