Read the small print of Labour’s new ‘progressive realism’ foreign policy: Britain’s economic, military and diplomatic leanings towards the Asia-Pacific, once ridiculed by the party, are now accepted as mainstream. It’s obvious. Its main elements, further trade deals, military cooperation through the Oaks submarine and technology agreements, and the Global Combat Fighter Program with Japan and Italy, are all absorbed into the Labor Party manifesto.
We now know that no matter which party leads the party after the election, it will not abandon its tilt. But that doesn’t mean you can’t change it. Whoever forms Britain’s next government will have to adapt its policies to the rise of what is being called a “new Asia”.
So far, the UK tilt has achieved rapid progress in trade deals and defense cooperation in the region by reinvigorating long-term relationships built over the past generation.
Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore are members of the Commonwealth of Nations, and together with the mature economies of Japan and South Korea, there is a region known as “Old Asia”. A group of distinct countries, or “New Asia,” will determine the next stage of the region’s growth and geopolitical direction. These include rapidly developing ASEAN members such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. But the biggest one is Indonesia.
Indonesia has outstanding potential for the UK in three respects, including demographics. In the developed countries of former Asia, the population is aging and decreasing. For example, the average Korean couple has about 0.6 children, far below the replacement rate. Not only does Indonesia currently have a population of approximately 250 million people; By 2050 it is predicted to increase to 300 million people.
Moreover, as is typically the case, the conditions of stability afforded by democratic political systems such as Indonesia’s allow a growing population to become ever more middle-income and middle-class. It’s the kind of market created for Britain’s services-driven economy, which makes it the world’s fourth-largest exporter, according to the United Nations.
Goldman Sachs projects that Indonesia will become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2050 (the UK was seventh at the same time). The resulting increase in Indonesia’s overall national power, combined with its traditionally strong sense of sovereign independence, will strengthen the region’s resilience to any attempts to impose a hierarchical or exclusive regional order. Japan is considered to be well-positioned to play a leading role in ensuring that
The term “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” may have been coined in Japan, but it will be preserved through the efforts of countries like Indonesia for future generations to enjoy.
This does not mean that the UK should imagine that Indonesia will simply conform to Western worldviews as it grows in economic power and geopolitical importance. The country’s self-confidence as a regional leader is based on national pride and was forged during Cold War independence struggles and resistance to ideological subordination. Central to this stance was Indonesia’s role in the founding of the Non-Aligned Movement with India and then Yugoslavia.
Traces of misaligned reflections remain. For example, Indonesian leaders refused to condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a recent United Nations debate.
But UN debates aside, today there are signs of a clear but subtle “tilt” in favor of democratically like-minded people. Indonesia has taken a more positive stance on the possibility of joining the 12-nation Asia-Pacific Free Trade Agreement, CPTPP, which the UK recently joined. Current Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto signed a defense cooperation agreement with the United States in November, and a similar agreement is expected to be signed with Australia later this year.
Mr. Prabowo will become head of state in the autumn, and the next British government is expected to be elected around the same time. Whichever party is in charge would be wise to consider opportunities to align with Indonesia’s leanings. This could primarily start with defence, which should not be excluded, but rather in areas that are emerging as priorities for Indonesia’s next government.
First, there is a need to promote Indonesia’s interest in joining the CPTPP. This is where the UK stands to benefit most immediately through the removal of 98 per cent of trade tariffs that membership brings.
Second, the UK will help Indonesia achieve its world-declared 1.5C COP target unless it helps Indonesia transition to cleaner energy and move away from coal, of which it is a major consumer and exporter. Unlikely. The UK has world-leading experience in the offshore wind industry and is at the forefront of technologies such as fusion energy generation. These technologies are not currently operational, but could emerge at a time when they are needed to meet Indonesia’s next-generation demands.
Third, the UK can work on finding alignment with Indonesia’s new role on the world stage. That ambition was evidenced by last year’s proposal for Russia-Ukraine peace talks and more recently by the air force’s provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Mobilizing support to advance Indonesia’s aspirations will help build partnerships in other areas.
Britain has an opportunity, but no time to lose. Indonesia’s clear trajectory shows that it will play an increasing role not only in regional leadership but also as a future world power. The country is showing a new openness to partnerships. Now is the time for Britain to be a bold and generous partner.
Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones is a Senior Research Fellow in RUSI’s International Security Team. His current research focuses on Indo-Pacific security.