LONDON — As former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson addressed a Conservative Party rally in London on Tuesday, he made clear that opinion polls were predicting his party was expected to be swept out of power with Thursday’s election.
“I think and hope the British people will show more sense on Thursday and draw back from the brink,” Johnson said during his first campaign speech in support of current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
One of Sunak’s cabinet members, Home Secretary Suella Braverman, put the party’s prospects more succinctly the following day, writing in an op-ed published Wednesday that “it’s over.”
After 14 years in power with five consecutive prime ministers — including Liz Truss, who served just 44 days — the Conservatives, or Tories, are widely expected to be voted out in favor of Labour, a center-left party that has run on a platform calling for “change.”
Polls opened at 7 a.m. across the United Kingdom on Thursday, marking the country’s first national vote since 2019. Voters in 650 constituencies will cast ballots for members of the House of Commons. An exit poll is scheduled to be published at 10 p.m., suggesting winners in key races.
Opinion polls in Britain have for more than two years predicted the Conservatives are heading for a “heavy defeat,” Pippa Catterall, a professor of history and politics at the University of Westminster, told ABC News.
“The Conservatives nonetheless went into the election with the hope that, as usual, the polls would narrow in their favor,” Catterall said. “Instead, it got worse.”
The Labour Party’s leader, Keir Starmer, who would become prime minister, said he hoped to put an end to the Conservative “chaos.”
His campaign released a “manifesto” laying out some of his government’s plans, including cutting hospital wait times, ushering in a greener economy and improving the U.K.’s post-Brexit trade deals with the European Union.
“From Ukraine to Gaza, Labour’s foreign and defense policy essentially mirrors the current government’s,” Dr. David S. Moon, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Bath, told ABC News. “Starmer’s Brexit plan lacks specifics beyond promising to negotiate a ‘better deal.'”
Moon and other political observers said it’s little surprise the Labour Party has focused its messaging on what the Conservatives have done with their time in office rather than campaigning solely on what they hope to accomplish.
Since David Cameron’s victory in the 2010 general election, the center-right Tories have led the country through a period of economic “austerity,” its exit from the European Union, the COVID pandemic and the current cost of living crisis.
“A Starmer victory seems more the product of a media backlash against the Conservatives following the scandal-plagued Johnson and Truss years rather than excitement about policy proposals, with Labour now seen across newsrooms as a safe alternative following Starmer’s shifting of the party to the right,” Moon said.
Cameron had called for the Brexit referendum before stepping down from power in 2016. He was followed in office by Theresa May, who put together a Brexit deal but stepped down before the deal could be completed. Johnson in his 2019 campaign promised to “Get Brexit Done,” and the country left in January 2020.
But the Tory’s leadership during the U.K.’s messy exit from the European Union is likely only one of many reasons that support for the party has waned, said Sean D. Ehrlich, associate professor of political science at Florida State University.
Johnson oversaw a chaotic rollout of COVID restrictions, which were then broken by Johnson himself during a Christmas gathering at 10 Downing Street, the prime minister’s official residence.
Truss introduced a “mini-budget” in 2022 that included a series of tax cuts aimed a growing the economy, but she reversed course within days amid public backlash.
British inflation then spiked under Sunak, rising to a high of 11% in late 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.
“The Conservatives are deeply unpopular in large part because they are no longer viewed as competent,” Ehrlich said. “Their struggles to implement Brexit play a large role in this decline in support but the election should probably not be viewed as a repudiation of Brexit itself.”
About six weeks ago, as Sunak announced he was calling a general election for July, he was caught in the rain in front of Downing Street without an umbrella.
The prime minister, who came to power in 2022 via an internal party election, has said Labour’s election would lead to weaker border security and higher taxes. He said Thursday that a Tory defeat could mean “higher taxes for a generation.”
“Labour would increase taxes on every part of your life, including your death,” he said on social media.
