The poll shows Biden and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the popular vote, with each candidate receiving 46 percent support among likely voters — roughly the same as results from an ABC-Ipsos poll conducted in April.
This discovery has led to several Other recent polls similarly show Trump leading by an average of 3.5 percentage points. Eight post-debate national polls tracked by The Washington Post showed Trump leading by one point in the same pre-debate polls. At this point in the campaign four years ago, the polling averages had Biden leading Trump by 9 to 11 points. Biden ultimately won by 4.5 points.
The president and his campaign have tried this week to garner support from key Democratic constituencies, including the Congressional Black Caucus, labor union leaders and key progressive lawmakers, but have had limited success. As of Wednesday evening, 13 Democrats in the House and Senate had called for Biden to withdraw, but one of them, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), later softened his position.
Also on Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) pressed Biden to decide whether to withdraw from the presidential race, a sign that she and other Democrats do not believe Biden’s comments about staying in office decided the race. problem.
Polls show how alarmed Democrats across the country were by what they saw in the debate, with many concerned that if Biden continues to run, it could give Trump an easier path to victory and give Republicans the ability to end up with majorities in both the House and the Senate, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said in an interview on CNN Tuesday night.
The survey showed little change in Biden’s approval rating, with 57% disapproving, the same as an April ABC-Ipsos poll. Among Democrats, 75% approve of Biden’s job performance and 22% disapprove, also little changed over the past few months. The votes were 43 percent in favor and 52 percent against, little changed from before the debate.
But last month’s debate, which most Americans watched or followed, appears to have heightened concerns about Biden’s age and fitness to be president. The percentage of Americans who say Biden is mentally faster than Trump fell from 23% in April to 14% this month. The percentage who say Biden is in better physical health than Trump fell from 20% to 13%.
Trump did not make much progress on these questions; instead, more people say neither candidate has the acuity or physical health necessary for the presidency. The number of Americans who say both Biden and Trump are too old to serve another term as president has risen from 53 percent in April to 58 percent now. The proportion who say only Biden is too old remained steady at 28 percent, while 2 percent say only Trump is too old.
Overall, 85% say Biden is too old and 60% say Trump is too old. In April, 81% said Biden is too old and 55% said Trump is too old.
Still, the new poll shows no change in voter intentions since the debate. In April, 46% of registered voters supported Biden and 45% supported Trump; now, 46% support each candidate. Both candidates enjoy strong support within their own parties, with 92% of Democrats saying they would vote for Biden if it were a choice, and 93% of Republicans saying they would support Trump. Among independents, the two candidates are nearly neck and neck, with 42% for Trump and 40% for Biden.
When third-party candidates are included, the margin between Biden and Trump remains roughly the same, with 42% backing Biden and 43% backing Trump. An additional 9% of registered voters support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2% support Cornel West and 2% support Jill Stein.
Democrats have yet to agree on who should succeed Biden if he leaves office, but Vice President Harris has far more support than other candidates.
In an open-ended question, 29% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents named Harris, 7% named California Governor Gavin Newsom, 4% named Michelle Obama, and 3% named Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Half did not name anyone in particular as an alternative to Biden.
In a separate question, 70% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would be “satisfied” if Harris replaced Biden as the party’s presidential nominee. That rose to 85% among black Democrats, but majorities of Democrats across demographic groups also said they would be satisfied with Harris.
Harris faces headwinds from a broader range of voters, with 53% of Americans saying they would be unhappy with her replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, including 58% of political independents. Two-thirds (67%) of Black people say they would be happy with Harris replacing Biden as the nominee, compared with 51% of Hispanic Americans and 38% of white people.
However, a separate polling test found that Harris received 49% of registered voters’ support, compared with 47% for Trump. However, the two-point difference is not statistically significant. The Harris-Biden coalition was also not significantly different, with support for Biden and Harris statistically tied across nearly every demographic group. The only exception was among voters who said they were “somewhat dissatisfied” with Biden’s performance, with 60% favoring Harris over Trump and 50% favoring Biden.
The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll revealed sharp racial divisions within Biden’s party over his candidacy: 63% of black Democrats say Biden should stay on, while 59% of Hispanic Democrats and 64% of white Democrats say he should step aside based on his performance in the debates. Democrats over 50 are roughly split on whether Biden should stay on, while 6 in 10 younger Democrats say he should step aside.
There is no ideological division among Democrats over whether Biden should drop out of the race or remain the candidate, with 55% of liberal Democrats wanting him to drop out, as do 57% of moderate and conservative Democrats.
At a heated campaign rally the day after the debate, Biden said, “I may not be able to walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to,” but “what I do know is how to tell the truth.” He criticized Trump for lying and repeating false claims during the debate.
Perceptions of honesty stand out as a clear advantage for Biden over Trump, with 39% of Americans saying Biden is more honest and trustworthy than Trump, 22% saying Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Biden, and 39% saying neither is honest.
According to the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll, Biden has a small advantage over Trump in terms of which candidate “represents personal values” and “protects American democracy.”
But when asked which candidate “understands the problems of people like you,” Americans are split almost evenly, with 34% saying Biden has more empathy, 32% saying Trump has more empathy and 34% saying they’re undecided. Four years ago, a Post-ABC phone poll found Biden holding a 17-point lead on a similar question.
Polls show that the CNN debate in Atlanta was a political disaster for Biden, but not a win for Trump: Only 7% of Americans say Biden won the debate, 46% say Trump won, and 45% say it was a no-win or tie. Half of Americans say the debate made them view Biden less “favorably,” while less than a quarter say the debate made them view Trump less favorably.
Half of adults (50%) say Trump should step aside based on his performance in the debates, while 47% say he should continue to run. But the big difference between Biden and Trump is that while nearly 9 in 10 Republicans continue to support Trump staying in the race, independents are far more likely to say Biden should drop out than say the same about the former president.
The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted July 5-9 among 2,431 U.S. adults through the Ipsos Knowledge Panel, a random survey panel of households nationwide. The overall results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, with a margin of error of 3.5 points among the sample of 825 self-identified Democrats and a margin of error of 3 points among 1,255 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
