Far from lowering the temperature, what happened at the Butler, Pennsylvania, rally could further intensify politics in 2024. There was, understandably, palpable anger among Republicans, and the immediate reaction by Trump’s allies and the clenched fists of the former president as he rushed to safety spoke to the passions of the moment.
It is no exaggeration to say that this violence will have a profound effect on the ongoing presidential campaign. It is a shocking incident that occurred at a critical time — on the eve of the Republican National Convention, which kicks off in Milwaukee on Monday — and will likely influence the course of the campaign and perhaps the outcome of the election itself.
In the past, the shock of political violence has tended to unite Americans in the belief that something needs to change, and there were many calls on Saturday to de-escalate tensions. But history shows that such feelings don’t last long, and this is certainly the time.
For many Americans, the importance of this election is so great that it is questioning their very existence on both sides of the political divide.
For those on the right, Saturday’s shooting will be a violent symbol of what they believe to be Trump’s persecution by his opponents on the left, even if they don’t know the motive of 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, who the FBI has named as a suspect.
As the former president was rushed to safety, his ears and face bloodied, his fists clenched defiantly, and appeared to say, “Fight! Fight!” No doubt his most loyal supporters, and perhaps other voters too, will find motivation in this horrific incident to go the extra mile for him.
The list of what Trump supporters see as persecution of the former president begins with the investigation into links between his 2016 campaign and Russian election interference — a special counsel found no evidence of a conspiracy, which Trump denounced as a hoax — and they also consider his two subsequent impeachments to be part of that list.
More recently, federal indictments have been filed alleging that President Trump concealed classified documents after leaving office, as well as the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The indictment also includes what appears to be constant harassment of President Trump by media outlets.
For those on the left, nothing symbolizes the peril of Trump’s reelection more than the January 6 attack, when protesters smashed doors and windows, vandalized offices and chanted “hang Mike Pence,” referring to the then-vice president.
That day alone is remembered as a glimpse into Trump’s authoritarian instincts, including his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election and his denial that President Biden was legitimately elected.
Trump has threatened to use the power of the Justice Department to go after his political opponents during his current campaign, even deploying agents on his behalf. In the past, he has not condemned violence at his rallies, including at a 2016 rally where he famously chanted “put her in jail” at then-Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
Unfortunately, the threat of violence is part of American politics today. It hangs over a country that is politically divided, angry and anxious about what the next election will bring. When a gunman grazed the former president’s ear in Butler on Saturday evening, everyone was reminded just how dangerous this environment can be.
The country has seen political violence before — many times, in fact — most notably in the 1960s, with the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy in 1963, Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, and violent clashes between police and anti-war protesters at the Democratic Convention in Chicago that summer.
Modern politics have seen similar incidents: In 1981, President Ronald Reagan was shot and nearly killed as he was leaving an event in Washington, and in 2011, Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords was shot during a voter rally in Tucson, killing six people and wounding many more.
In 2017, a gunman opened fire at a baseball field outside Washington where Republican lawmakers were practicing for the annual Congressional Baseball Game. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) was critically wounded, one of six people injured that day.
On January 6th, there was an attack on the Capitol Building, and in October 2022, Paul Pelosi, the husband of then-Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (Democrat, California), was attacked at his San Francisco home and beaten with a hammer.
This time it was a shot at the former president, who is set to be formally nominated by Republican delegates on Thursday to challenge Biden in November.
Biden was one of the first political leaders to stand on camera Saturday and condemn the shooting, saying in a statement that he and First Lady Jill Biden were praying for their political opponents. Other elected officials followed suit, uniting in a shocking and traumatic moment, a sudden and violent display of the unthinkable on display to the world.
President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social on Sunday, thanking people for their prayers and urging everyone to “stand together, show our true American character, stay strong and determined, and do not let evil win.”
When Scalise was shot, the right blamed the left for political rhetoric and hostility focused on Trump. When Giffords was shot, criticism was directed at some conservative politicians, particularly former Republican vice presidential candidate and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. When Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, the left accused the then-president of inciting the mob.
After the 2017 baseball shooting, then-Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), who was at the practice field, denounced it as “political and rhetorical terrorism.” Davis called on elected officials and the public to change course. “Is this America’s breaking point?” Davis said at the time. “This is my breaking point. This has got to end.”
It’s not over yet. American politics is saturated with inflammatory rhetoric. Constructive political dialogue is a devalued currency. Even the mildest acts of politicians provoke extreme reactions from political operatives of the other party, who are trained to attack and degrade. A public that fears for its country, is emotional, and amplified by social media, contributes to this heated environment.
Hostility has become a feature of politics today. Political science has made it clear that partisans no longer simply oppose the views of their opponents, as they once did. They now see their opponents as a threat to the very fabric and future of the state, as enemies who oppose their values and, in their view, the values of the state. Electoral contests are Armageddon, and defeat brings about the apocalypse.
The campaign had already been marked by the toughest rhetoric possible about what was at stake. Biden, Vice President Harris, their allies and much of the media have repeatedly portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy. After Saturday’s shooting, Republicans called such attacks irresponsible and overheated and called for an end to them. But Biden is unlikely to change his views, even if he tries to portray them differently.
But Trump and many of his supporters see Biden as an equal threat. They accuse Biden of weaponizing the Justice Department by investigating and prosecuting Trump’s actions around the Jan. 6 attack and his handling of classified documents after he left office. They accuse Biden of being corrupt and his family crooked.
Shortly after Trump was shot, Biden’s campaign announced it was pulling the ad. The decision came a day after Biden delivered perhaps his harshest attack yet against Trump at a rally in Michigan, where he called Trump a convicted felon and rapist and threatened legal action against the former president.
Trump’s supporters were quick to blame the left for the shooting, with everyone from Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s possible running mate, to Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), to one of Trump’s top campaign advisers, Chris LaCivita, saying that the attempt was, in Scott’s words, “aided and abetted by the radical left and the corporate media, who continually call Trump a threat to democracy, a fascist or worse.”
Here we are, the day after Trump’s shocking attack in Pennsylvania: The country is united in its belief that things cannot continue as they are, viewing this election as one of the most important in the nation’s history, but divided on the path forward and who should lead the country for the next four years.
