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People wave French flags during a rally at Republic Square.
CNN
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“I threw a live grenade at their feet,” French President Emmanuel Macron was reported as saying when he called for early general elections after the far-right’s brutal victory in June’s European Parliament elections.
It was a bold gamble, and the final result stunned the country: France’s left-wing coalition came in first with 182 seats, while the far-right slipped to third place, a shocking reversal from last Sunday’s first-round result.
In Paris’ Place de la Republique, news of the expected election results erupted in rapturous applause and fireworks, as people embraced each other and breathed a sigh of relief. In their eyes, France had been saved from peril.
Turnout on Sunday was the highest in a parliamentary election in more than two decades, as French people flocked to the ballot box to demonstrate their rejection of a far-right government.
But with the left falling short of the 289 seats needed for a majority and the president’s power weakened, Parliament is expected to be more divided than ever.
What is certain is that France is facing a long period of instability as three rival factions with competing ideologies and policy agendas try to form a coalition or collapse into paralysis.
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Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, was visibly disappointed, claiming his party’s defeat was only possible through strategic voting, with Macron and his left-wing NFP coalition deciding this week to withdraw 200 candidates from the election in order to thwart the far-right.
Although the RN did not perform as well as expected, it was still a victory for Marine Le Pen, a leading figure in France’s far-right party, who has increased her vote count with each successive election: 8 votes in 2017, 89 votes in 2022, and 143 votes in 2024, the latter with the support of her allies.
It will be hard for the left-leaning NFP coalition to speak with one voice: when they formed a coalition under the name Nupes in 2022, it fell apart over personal as well as policy differences.
The coalition brings together five parties. The far-left Indomitable France and the Communists have joined with center-left parties, the Socialists and the Greens to form the New Popular Front. The question now is not whether the left can unite against the far right, but whether the groups can work together to agree first on who from their camp should become prime minister, and then what policies they should pursue.
With Congress so divided, major structural reforms at the national level are unlikely; the left can only hope for temporary alliances to pass individual bills.
It is equally hard to imagine how France could play a significant role in Ukraine in the current situation: Mr Macron has in the past vowed to continue supporting Ukraine militarily, while Ms Le Pen has said her party would stop Kiev from using French-supplied long-range weapons to attack Russian soil and opposes sending in French troops.
The left has been relatively quiet on Ukraine, with each party in the coalition taking slightly different positions, and unyielding France opposing so-called “escalation” with Russia.
Macron’s centre bloc appears to have fared reasonably well, winning 163 seats – much better than the polls suggested, even though it lost around 100 MPs – but we will likely see a shift of power from the Élysée Palace to the National Assembly.
Macron’s gamble may have prevented the far-right from seizing power, but it could still plunge the country into chaos. And with no parliamentary elections scheduled for the next year, France faces uncertain times with the Olympics in three weeks and the world’s eyes on Paris.
