International bettors believe presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is likely to win the 2024 presidential election following the assassination attempt that took place in Butler County, Pennsylvania on Saturday evening.
Meanwhile, bettors on the US election on cryptocurrency trading platform PolyMarket believe Vice President Kamala Harris will replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. Biden was the front-runner until Wednesday, when Rep. Adam Schiff became the most prominent Democrat to call for Biden to step down.
The bets, which cannot be made legally in the US, raised Trump’s chances of winning to 65% as of 4 pm EDT on Thursday. On Monday, ahead of the first day of the Republican National Convention, the odds had risen to 72%.
How has Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election changed?
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“This election cycle is already shaping up to be the most unpredictable in history,” David Rosenberg, vice president of strategy at Polymarket, said in an email. “Our forecasts are helping people understand where this race is headed in real time, including unprecedented developments like those we saw this weekend.”
The gap between Trump and Biden on PolyMarket opened in mid-May, just before the two men agreed to hold two presidential debates. The gap widened in late June after Biden struggled in the first debate. By last week, three other betting sites were listing Trump as the overwhelming favorite to win the presidential election.
Presidential Election Betting Odds
How the betting markets will behave and how much importance should be placed on them with roughly four months to go before Election Day is up for debate. Here are some things to consider:
◾ The gambling data could be tilted in Trump’s favor. Data from Resonate, an AI-powered consumer data intelligence company, found that voters likely to vote for Trump in 2024 are 34% more likely to gamble or visit casinos than the average American.
◾ The markets accurately predicted the vice presidential choice. Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance was overwhelmingly endorsed in the poly market as President Trump’s running mate on Monday morning, just hours before the election was officially announced.
◾ The odds of winning do not necessarily equate to the margin of victory. Betting markets suggest Trump’s chances of winning have increased significantly, but recent polls of registered voters have not shown a similar gap between him and Biden.
After Biden’s lackluster debate performance, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted by landline and cell phone showed Trump in the lead, but it was inconclusive.
A similar USA Today/Suffolk poll in May had the two candidates tied at 37% of the vote. Following the June 27 debate, a June 28-June 30 poll gave Trump a 41-38 lead.
Another finding from the poll was yet another warning sign for Biden, and perhaps the election: 41% of Democrats said they want to replace Biden as the top Democratic candidate.
Who is the likely Democratic nominee?
Over the past 24 hours, polymarket bettors seem to think it’s much less likely that Biden will remain in the race and that Harris will be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Thursday was one of four days since the debate in which bookmakers projected Harris to be the favorite to win over Biden as the Democratic nominee.
Contributors: Susan Page and Rachel Barber
