MILWAUKEE — As Republicans grow more confident about their chances of not only winning the White House but also taking control of both houses of Congress, they shouldn’t forget why they chose Milwaukee to host their convention in the first place.
No matter how well former President Donald Trump performs in the Sun Belt battleground states (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina), he will need to win one of the three key Northern battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to secure the 270 electoral votes.
And it’s that necessity that made Milwaukee an attractive location for a Republican convention. Now, let’s be real for a second. There isn’t a lot of data to support the idea that a convention city can singlehandedly sway a state. Parties often choose convention cities for reasons other than Electoral College politics. Chicago hosts many conventions simply because it’s central. New York and Philadelphia host many conventions because they’re central to the political classes of both Washington/DC and NYC.
In the last four Republican presidential elections, the Republican candidate has won a convention state just twice: Trump won Ohio in 2016 (in Cleveland), while George W. Bush lost both Pennsylvania and New York after conventions in Philadelphia and New York City. His father was elected president in 1988 in a landslide electoral victory that included Louisiana after holding a convention in New Orleans.
Democrats have fared slightly better, winning the host state in four of the last five conventions that have taken the White House (including 2020 and the virtual convention originally scheduled for Milwaukee). Bill Clinton won both convention states (New York in 1992 and Illinois in 1996). Barack Obama won Colorado in 2008 but lost North Carolina in 2012. And Joe Biden narrowly won Wisconsin in 2020.
In reality, hosting a convention in a battleground state does not necessarily guarantee a party a victory there, but the resources (including money and volunteers) accumulated in the host city are a huge asset in the fall elections. Both the Trump and Obama campaigns would argue that the assets left over from the 2008 Democratic convention in Denver and the 2016 Republican convention in Ohio were extremely helpful in flipping those states.
So, with that little history lesson out of the way, the question remains: Will this convention help Republicans win Wisconsin?
Here’s the truth: Republicans need a little help to win in Wisconsin. Of the three northern battleground states, Wisconsin is the one where Republicans seem the least confident and most struggling.
The state Supreme Court’s shifting ideological makeup has opened the door to more competitive state legislative elections, giving state Democrats a good chance to compete for the first time in nearly two decades. That potential “trickle-up” effect, at least when it comes to statewide voter turnout and campaigning, is something Democrats hope for and Republicans fear.
That’s not the only reason Democrats seem stronger in Wisconsin than in other battleground states. In the Senate race, Democrat Tammy Baldwin has proven to be a formidable incumbent. She’s earned a reputation as the go-to senator when you need something, no matter which side of Congress you’re on. She’s undermined potential critics in a way that neutralizes them. Republicans want to be bullish on businessman Eric Hovde, and their race will be close given how competitive the state is, but Wisconsin is a second-tier state where Republican Senate watchers in Washington are counting on a win.
In other words, if Republicans beat Baldwin, it would likely mean that Trump would win the election in a landslide and Republicans would gain four to six seats in the Senate.
If there’s one main “benefit” that supporters of Senator J.D. Vance have highlighted as a reason to add him to the Trump ticket, it’s the idea that a candidate like him could help garner the support of traditional, blue-collar, worker-loving Democrats in these three key Northern battleground states. As Senator Vance campaigns alone, you’ll likely see him frequently in Pennsylvania as well as Michigan.
In theory, Wisconsin should be one of his frequent stops, but keep an eye on his schedule in September and October — for every Wisconsin stop, he’ll likely be in the other two states two or three times as often.
But as Trump begins to expand his lead nationally, the margins (and close races) in these three battleground states will likely begin to disappear, and instead, his base will expand to include Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and even New Mexico.
Why Schiff’s comments matter
A quick guide to interpreting Rep. Adam Schiff’s public decision to urge Biden to step down and field a new Democratic presidential nominee.
Whether Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris or another Democrat comes out on top in California’s Senate race, Schiff is the favorite to win the seat long held by Dianne Feinstein until her death. So this isn’t about Schiff worrying about his own future. His voice is speaking out on behalf of some of the base that Biden believes he is losing: big donors, House Democrats and Nancy Pelosi.
Schiff, who lives in Southern California, rose to prominence during Trump’s first impeachment, which means big Democratic donors likely have him in their contacts, and to say his phone is ringing is an understatement.
Then there’s the issue of House Democrats. Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to win the majority, and their best chances are actually in blue states, specifically California and New York. In fact, seven Republican seats are expected to be tightly contested in those two blue states alone. But what House Democrats fear most about giving Biden a lead is that his failed candidacy and campaigning skills will cause a recession within the party and lower voter turnout, especially among blue-state Democrats, by November.
Here’s the idea: If you’re a Democrat who’s angry or demoralized about Biden (and there are many), you might hold your nose and vote for him, but only if you think your state matters in the presidential election. But if you don’t live in a battleground state (neither California nor New York are battleground states) and you want to send a message to Biden by not voting, blue-state Democrats might feel less guilty about not voting.
This explains why House Democrats are more vocal about getting rid of Biden than Senate Democrats. It’s not that Senate Democrats are more in favor of keeping Biden in office (they aren’t), it’s just that Senate Democrats know that even if Biden (or any other Democrat) wins the White House, they would likely lose their majority because of the tight seats in the Senate they are defending this year.
Which brings us to Pelosi. Schiff has been a close ally to Pelosi throughout her entire career. She has entrusted him with many difficult tasks, from the first impeachment to chairing the House Intelligence Committee. She also helped Schiff become the leading Senate candidate in the primaries. It’s hard to imagine Schiff would have acted this way if he thought Pelosi was leaning toward supporting Biden to stay in office.
While no one is acknowledging that an adjustment is happening at this point, it’s hard not to see congressional Democrats trying again to pressure Biden to reconsider his presidential bid. Wednesday alone kicked off with Schiff’s statement, denying without denial the story that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had met one-on-one with Biden on Saturday (right before the assassination attempt on Trump) (after being provided with polling data for a “frank” conversation about Biden’s political stance after the June 27 debate). In between, a new Associated Press-NORC poll found that a majority of Democrats across the board want Biden out.
Here’s the reality: Biden’s roads are closing in. His COVID-19 diagnosis on Wednesday and subsequent forced isolation because of his age will make it harder for him to convince Democratic leaders that his debate performance was simply one bad night. The only question now is whether Biden will cave to the pressure before the Democratic convention delegates address the issue themselves.
Biden’s aides saw their only trump card as taking control of the convention, but the Democratic National Committee’s decision, under pressure from Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, to postpone the party’s virtual roll-call nominations for at least a week is beginning to make Biden look isolated and helpless.
