Alan Lichtman, a historian who has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said Sunday that it could be disruptive for the party if Democratic delegates rebel against President Joe Biden and choose another Democratic candidate.
There is no indication that many Democratic delegates will choose another candidate to lead the party in the November election, but “Fox News Sunday” host Shannon Bream asked Lichtman what obligations Democratic delegates have “if President Biden says he’s not going to decline the endorsement.”
Biden won overwhelming victories in all 50 state Democratic primaries this year, securing thousands of delegates ahead of next month’s convention.
“While the delegates may indeed decide to replace President Biden, history suggests that a convention brawl would be a disaster,” Lichtman, the American University professor, argued Sunday.
But the historian’s comments come as some Democrats are calling for Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race following his disastrous performance in last month’s debate with former President Donald Trump.
Using 13 historical factors, or “keys,” Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of nearly every election over the past half century except for the 2000 election.
The system includes four politics-based factors, seven performance-based factors and two factors based on the candidate’s character, and Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those factors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.
Key factors range from whether the candidate is a sitting president to the state of the economy to the presence of third-party candidates.
But debate performance won’t be a deciding factor in the election, Lichtman has long argued. He said Sunday that Biden already has two of the 13 conditions he thinks will give him an advantage over potential Democratic challengers, including already being the incumbent president and there being no “partisan battle” for Democrats this year.
Lichtman warned that Democrats risk “creating the same situation that led to Donald Trump’s election in 2016 — creating an internal party contest where an incumbent doesn’t run.”
Biden has vowed to stay in the presidential race in 2024, and only a handful of Democrats have publicly called on him to pass the baton.
By Carissa Waddick, USA TODAY
