Leftist coalition leads in exit polls – DW – 07/07/2024

RN leader Marine Le Pen sought to focus on the positives for her party after seemingly failing to convert a first-round lead in the popular vote. 

Asked on TF1 television if she was disappointed, Le Pen said: “Not forcibly disappointed, no, because I’m too experienced to be disappointed on an election evening where we doubled our number of seats.” 

She argued this was particularly impressive given the very broad alliance her party had to compete against, going all the way from Macron’s pro-business centrists to the French Communist Party and Melenchon’s La France Insoumise. 

She also argued that the press had “clearly taken a side” in the campaign. 

Le Pen said she believed the vote had shown that her party was the “first” in France, noting that it would also have more seats, at least as currently projected, than any other individual party in the country.

The foreign policy spokesman of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats voiced cautious optimism in comments to German newspapers that will be printed on Monday. 

“The worst has been avoided,” Nils Schmid told the newspapers in the Funke Media Group. 

He said that now what would be decisive was the flexibility and willingness to compromise among democratic parties in France. 

A German MEP with the Green Party, Anna Cavazzini, meanwhile congratulated France’s Green Party — a member of the NFP alliance — on the result. 

“Even if the future of the French government will not be easy, this is still first and foremost really good news,” Cavazzini said. 

There was no immediate response from senior German government members late on Sunday night. 

Former French President Francois Hollande is set to be one of the new members of the National Assembly as part of the NFP alliance. 

Emmanuel Macron’s predecessor remains a member of the center-left Parti Socialiste (PS), one of the more moderate members of NFP. 

“I will not be a typical member of parliament, that is clear,” Hollande admitted, given his background.

The 70-year-old was competing for the Correze seat to the east of Bordeaux, and told the AFP news agency his decision to return was rooted in the “exceptional situation” created when Emmanuel Macron called the snap elections. 

He claimed a projected 43.1% of the vote in the runoff, compared to 31.4% for the RN candidate Maitey Pouget, and roughly 25% for center-right candidate Francois Dubois. 

Incumbent Dubois was one of the candidates to refuse to withdraw from a second round of voting despite having finished third in the first round. In many constituencies, third-placed candidates pulled out so as not to split the more left-wing vote against RN.

As the counting continues, projections are starting to narrow slightly, in what could still be a night with a few surprises in store, given the variations across broadcasters in France.

Focusing mainly on the polling done by the IFOP company on behalf of national broadcaster TF1, the left-wing NFP are on 188-199 seats, Macron’s Ensemble on 164-169 seats, the far-right National Rally (RN) on 135-143 seats, while the center-right Les Republicains are projected to win 63 seats. 

The broadcaster’s update is from around two hours after the polls closed. It still has the same running order as previous polls, but some smaller margins of expected error.

Prime Minster Gabriel Attal said he would offer President Emmanuel Macron his resignation on Monday, with his party on course to finish second, according to exit polls. 

Nobody is set to claim a majority in the National Assembly, based on the projections, but the left-wing NFP will be the largest party. Its leader Jean-Luc Melenchon has said the alliance must lead the next government. 

However, Attal also said that if his resignation was refused, he was ready to remain in office “as long as duty demands,” with the Paris Olympics due to begin in three weeks.

Establishing a functional government may prove complex, particularly if the NFP is unwilling to collaborate with Macron as Melenchon has implied. That could lead to a weak minority government with opposing positions to the executive branch.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk focused on the foreign policy implications of a possible far-right win in France, after Marine Le Pen said during the campaign that she would not endorse French weaponry being used against targets in Russia. 

“In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief,” Tusk wrote. “Enough to be happy in Warsaw.” 

However, the strong showing for the NFP and Jean-Luc Melenchon may also have some implications for the war in Ukraine. 

For years, Melenchon advocated France’s immediate withdrawal from NATO. He has recently softened this stance to instead argue that the country should eventually withdraw from the military alliance. 

The far-right’s candidate for prime minister, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has criticized Macron and the NFP for “pushing France into uncertainty and instability.”

He blamed the centrist and far-left coordination describing it as an “alliance of dishonor,” saying it would “deprive France of the politics of recovery.”

“Unfortunately, the alliance of dishonor and the electoral arrangements reached by Emmanuel Macron and [Prime Minister] Gabriel Attal with the extreme left” had deprived France of an RN-led government, he said. 

Bardella said the agreement had “thrown France into the arms of [Jean-Luc] Melenchon.” 

Bardella, currently a member of the European Parliament, said he saw the results as a defining moment in French politics.

“This evening, an old world has fallen, and nothing can stop a people who have started to hope again,” he said.

Jean-Luc Melenchon gave a speech soon after polls closed, calling the results an “immense relief for a majority of people in our country.”

Melenchon is the most prominent member of the broad left-wing NFP alliance, which coordinated with Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble bloc to maximize their chances of combined victory in the second round vote against the far right. 

“The president must admit this defeat without trying to circumvent it,” Melenchon said. “The prime minsiter must go. He never received the confidence of the National Assembly and received a massive vote of no confidence from the public.” 

He said he was not willing to enter into negotiations with Macron or his allies about a potential alliance. “We refuse to enter into negotiations with his party to make combinations, especially after having relentlessly beaten his policy of social mistreatment for seven years,” the veteran leftist said. 

“The ballot boxes have decided. The NFP is ready to govern. Its components, the united left, have risen to the circumstances and have foiled the trap set for the country. Once again, it has saved the Republic,” Melenchon said. 

The first exit polls are being published, with major broadcaster TF1 predicting that the left-wing NFP will win the most seats, but still around 100 short of a majority. 

It predicts between 180 and 215 seats for Jean-Luc Melenchon’s alliance. 

President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance looks set for 150 to 180 seats, TF1 predicts. 

And Marine Le Pen’s RN, despite its first round supremacy, again looks set to fall foul of France’s two-round voting system. It’s on course for between 120 and 150 seats, according to the early projections. 

Meanwhile, the center-right party Les Republicains was on course for 60-65 seats.

These figures could all still be subject to change, but typically it is rare for exit polls to be drastically mistaken. 

That’s it, it’s 8 p.m. in France, which means all polling stations should either have closed or be in the process of closing after letting the last people in line cast their votes. 

The first projections from French broadcasters should follow shortly. 

Shops on central Parisian streets like the Champs Elysees began boarding up their facades ahead of the results. 

Some retailers in the more upmarket streets of central Paris had kept barricades up all week between the two rounds of voting, fearing potential protests or vandalism in the aftermath of the results following a fractious snap election campaign. 

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said authorities recorded more than 50 physical assaults on candidates or campaigners during the three-week campaign. 

Darmanin said that around 30,000 officers were being deployed around the country for election night. Both far-right and far-left activists were planning demonstrations across the country should the RN secure a majority.

Time for a quick arithmetic recap as the close of voting and preliminary results appoach. 

Today’s vote will decide all 577 seats in France’s influential lower house, the Assemble Nationale. 

That means Marine Le Pen’s RN needs a total of at least 289 to have an absolute majority. 

When voting closes at 8 p..m., the first projections based on exit polls will swiftly follow from national broadcasters and the polling companies they commission. The official tally is expected Monday morning.

Every seat is decided on a majoritarian basis in the second round; in other words, the candidate with the most votes wins outright. 

A five p.m. local time (1500 UTC) update on turnout shows higher figures than at the same stage of France’s last parliamentary election in 2022. 

Some 59.7% of eligible voters had cast ballots, with another three hours left to vote, the Interior Ministry said.

That compares to just 38.11% at the same time in the second round of 2022’s election. Turnout tends to be much lower at these votes in France than for presidential elections, which tend to attract at least 70% of voters. 

In these snap elections called by Macron, turnout looks on course to more or less mirror the figures France would tend to expect when selecting a president.

The partial figures were similar to the figures from last weekend’s first round of voting, in fact, they were slightly higher. 

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) has won all constituencies in the French overseas territories of Martinique and French Guiana in France’s parliamentary election, according to preliminary results.

The Caribbean island of Martinique is represented by four seats in France’s National Assembly, all of which were taken by incumbent NFP candidates on Sunday.

French Guiana’s two incumbent members of parliament, both belonging to the NFP, kept their seats, according to the France24 broadcaster.

The NFP came second in the first round of France’s legislative election, behind the far-right National Rally (RN).

Left-wing parties won all four seats representing the French overseas territory of Guadeloupe in France’s parliamentary election, according to preliminary results.

All four incumbent members of parliament were reelected by between 69% and 78% of the vote.

France’s four main left-leaning and green parties formed an alliance last month — called the New Popular Front —  to try and put a stop to the advance of the far right in the legislative elections.

Two candidates from the far-right National Rally (RN) made it to the runoff but were defeated in the second round, according to the France24 broadcaster. 

Guadeloupe is a Caribbean archipelago that is governed as a French overseas department.