(NewsNation) — With Democrats changing their presumptive 2024 presidential nominee from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, the party has lost three “keys” to victory, but four more still remain, according to the historian who came up with the “keys” formula.
“You need six negative keys to rule out a party holding the White House,” said Alan Lichtman, a historian at American University.
“At this point, the Democratic Party has lost three keys by switching to Harris,” he told NewsNation’s “Elizabeth Vargas Report.” He said the Democrats lost the key of “party credibility” after their crushing defeat in the 2022 midterm elections. He also said Harris has lost the keys of “charisma” and “incumbency.”
During a previous appearance on NewsNation, Lichtman suggested that if President Joe Biden were to withdraw from the campaign trail, he should also resign from his presidency to give Harris the advantage of being the incumbent.
According to Lichtman’s “key” model, Democrats would need to lose three more keys to predict a Harris defeat, but he says that’s unlikely.
Meanwhile, he said, four keys remain in play: the influence of a third-party candidate, the possibility of major social unrest, a major foreign policy or military failure, or a major foreign policy or military success.
Mr. Lichtman said the most popular third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would need the support of about 10 percent of voters to have any impact.
“It’s possible, but unlikely,” he said.
Regarding social unrest as a factor, he said “the protests we saw this spring have died down,” and while there was a possibility of violent protests in Chicago surrounding the Democratic National Convention, as happened in 1968, he said this was unlikely.
The two most volatile locks, according to Lichtman, are those centered on foreign policy and the military.
“That’s why Kamala Harris was talking about the need for a ceasefire (in Gaza) and the release of hostages. If the Biden administration could get that done, they could have a key foreign policy and military success story. But they don’t have that right now.”
Lichtman downplayed the possibility that Harris might choose a running mate in the future and rumors of simmering resentment within the Republican Party toward Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.
“Zero. There is no vice presidential lock-in and no evidence that the vice presidential selection would affect the outcome of the election.”
Alan Lichtman’s White House Keys:
- Party Mission
- Party Contest
- Term of office
- third party
- Short-term economics
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social anxiety
- scandal
- Foreign and military policy failures
- Foreign and military policy successes
- The charisma of the incumbent
- Charisma of the challenger
