When gunfire cut through the night air at a Donald Trump rally in western Pennsylvania on Saturday night, it was reminiscent of generations of political violence at one of the most unsettling moments in American history and provided a terrifying and shocking accent to a 2024 presidential election as chaotic as any in U.S. history.
The assassination attempt marks a chilling new chapter in the history of America’s deepening division and political polarization over the past decade, as trust in credible sources of information declines and is replaced by bad actors on poorly managed social media platforms, a fierce “us vs. them” debate rages between liberals and conservatives, and a series of unprecedented events destabilize the nation’s political system.
Six weeks and one day before the shooting, a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts related to charges that he falsified business records to conceal a sexual relationship with a porn star for his own political gain, making him the first former president to be convicted of a crime.
Meanwhile, after a debate with President Joe Biden in late June that left him politically so damaged that some in his own party are calling for him to abandon his presidential nomination, the Supreme Court has granted Trump, and future presidents, broad immunity from prosecution for acts committed while in office.
And now, as he prepares to formally accept his third consecutive Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention next week, Trump has survived an assassination attempt — the first time a president or presidential candidate has been injured by an assassination attempt in more than 40 years, since Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981.
Four presidents were killed by assassin’s bullets: Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy. Kennedy’s brother, Robert F. Kennedy, was killed while campaigning for the Democratic nomination in 1968, and segregationist Alabama Governor George Wallace was left partially paralyzed in an assassination attempt while campaigning in 1972. In 1981, just over two months after taking office, Reagan was shot and seriously wounded outside a Washington hotel.
Americans reacted to each incident with unity, shock and grief, but no clear political impact beyond that. For now, it’s not yet clear how the shootings will affect the outcome of the rematch between Trump and Biden. But the incidents have rocked the country and upset an election race that had long appeared static.
Trump, who appeared defiant with his fist pumped in the air and blood streaming all over his face moments after the shooting, said on social media Saturday night that the bullet had hit him in the ear.
Republicans were quick to endorse Trump through statements, social media posts and television appearances, signaling the accelerated unity that typically occurs within political parties around national conventions. Many of Trump’s staunchest supporters expressed encouragement by the assassination attempt on him.
At the same time, the attack has interrupted and overshadowed everything else going on in the 2024 campaign, including the intense criticism Biden has received over the past two weeks from Democrats wary of his debate performance and unsatisfied with his efforts to clean up the mess.
Both campaigns instructed their staffs on Saturday night not to comment publicly on the assassination attempt on the former president, but some on Trump’s side have begun to blame Biden.
“The Biden campaign’s central argument is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” said Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, a possible vice presidential candidate for Trump. “This rhetoric led directly to the assassination attempt on President Trump.”
Democrats have long sought to hold Trump accountable for comments they say incited the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, but they disputed that messaging.
A Biden aide noted, “The president has repeatedly said before and during his administration that he condemns political violence and that it must never happen.”
Biden, Democratic leaders and most Republican leaders called for civility in the wake of the shooting. “I’ve never heard of any political violence like this happening in America, any violence at all,” Biden said. “This is totally inappropriate. I mean, everybody, everybody has to condemn this.”
But a surprising number of presidents and candidates have been the target of assassination attempts, undermining American elections and democracy itself.
According to the Congressional Research Service, by 2008 there had been a total of 15 assassination attempts on the president, president-elect, and presidential candidates.
“Political violence is unacceptable,” Jack Schlossberg, John F. Kennedy’s grandson, wrote to X. “But it is part of our history.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running for president as an independent this year, has asked the Biden administration for Secret Service protection but has so far been denied. Asked about the matter in an interview with News Nation, Kennedy declined to pursue his claims, instead calling for de-escalating tensions in American politics.
“I was with my father when he died in Los Angeles,” Kennedy said. “I understand how this impacts our country.”
The impact on the November election is less clear.
