Medha Singh
(Reuters) – Cryptocurrency stocks, prison operators and other stocks that could benefit from a Donald Trump presidency surged on Monday as an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate boosted his chances of winning the U.S. presidential election.
Investors said betting on a Trump victory was likely to pick up this week after Trump was shot in the ear during a rally in Pennsylvania. Trump pumped his fist shortly after the attack and his campaign said he was unharmed.
Bets on Trump winning the election have risen to 67 cents from 60 cents on Friday, compared with 27 cents for Joe Biden, according to online betting site PredictIt.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, soared 33%. Trump owns a majority stake in the company, which was valued at about $3.8 billion as of June 25, according to data from LSEG. TMTG is also the parent company of social media platform Truth Social.
“It’s important to note that there are nearly four months to go and things could change, but right now the market is betting on a Trump victory,” said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI, adding that TMTG is “the tip of the spear and most sensitive to a Trump victory.”
TMTG shares have risen 75% so far this year, buoyed by retail investors who expect Trump to win the rematch against Democratic candidate and U.S. President Joe Biden on November 5.
Crypto stocks also rallied after President Trump presented himself as a crypto champion, sending Bitcoin soaring to a two-week high. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global, bitcoin miners Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital all rose between 5% and 8.5%.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose on expectations that President Trump’s policies will increase inflation and debt, while the benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.5% and neared a new record high.
“Most investors haven’t changed their overall stance on U.S. stocks. After all, the overall stock market rose under the Trump administration and is rising under the Biden administration,” said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments.
Gun and ammunition stocks Smith & Wesson Brands, Sturm, Ruger & Co. and Ammo rose between 7.5% and 18%. Firearms stocks tend to rally after mass shootings, as in the past calls for gun control led some people to buy more firearms out of fear that access to guns would be restricted.
Prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic also rose 10% and 7.7%, respectively. Both could benefit from President Donald Trump’s promise to crack down on illegal immigration, potentially boosting demand for detention facilities.
Shares of Funware, a software development company tapped by President Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign to develop a phone app, rose 8%, while shares of Rumble, a video-sharing platform popular with conservatives, rose 8.6%.
Meanwhile, clean energy stocks fell after Trump said he would roll back many of the Biden administration’s signature climate change policies, including tax breaks, if he wins the election.
The Invesco Solar ETF fell 5.6%, and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF dropped 3.7%.
Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies fell on expectations that President Trump’s reelection would intensify trade tensions between Beijing and the United States.
A Biden administration is set to benefit from a robust economy with slowing inflation and falling unemployment, but U.S. voters see Trump as the better candidate for the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“In the absence of any real policy announcements from President Trump, traders are being forced to speculate on the Trump 2024 trade,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial.
“President Trump’s reelection would generally mean more stimulus, lower income taxes, less regulation and higher tariffs.”
(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Pranav Kashyap; Editing by Devika Shamnath)
