Venezuela 2024 Election: Maduro Seeks to Strengthen Military Loyalty

AGUA CALIENTE, Venezuela (AP) — At an intersection not far from a weed-filled gas station, young men and women in faded green overalls stop vehicles returning from a rally for opponents of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, asking passengers for identification and searching cars, trucks and motorbikes.

Such checkpoints have mushroomed across the country’s vast tropical plains, forested highlands and coastline ahead of Sunday’s presidential election, aimed at intimidating and sometimes detaining government critics. They often demand rides, bananas or “cooperation,” a Venezuelan euphemism for a small bribe.

But the power struggle often ends in failure, as higher-ups flee the scorching sun, while underlings express their discontent with Maduro and their openness to their new commander in chief.

“Have the women arrived? Are there many people?” one jubilant soldier asked, referring to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

“I would have liked to see it but there’s no Wi-Fi here,” whispered another.

Since taking power in 2013, President Maduro has not hesitated to use the military to quell protests while giving top officials high-paying government jobs and control of key industries. But with days before a hotly contested vote that threatens to threaten his continued hold on power, the self-described socialist is working harder than ever to cement the loyalty of the military, the traditional arbiter of political disputes in Venezuela, and to control his top generals.

The president recently appeared on national television to attend a graduation ceremony for 25,000 police officers, praising them as the first line of defense against the attempts of right-wing hardliners to cause disaster. He also promoted dozens of officers and bestowed a new title on longtime Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez: “Sovereign People’s General.”

“The fate of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro said at a rally this month. “If we want to avoid bloodshed and a fraternal civil war sparked by fascists, we must guarantee the greatest electoral victory in our history.”

Instead of standing firmly by Maduro’s side and adhering to their traditional role of protecting voting rights, government officials have become deeply involved in political mudslinging.

Gen. Domingo Hernández Lares, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, posted a photo on social media that appeared to show Machado speaking in front of a whiteboard inscribed with a message calling for the “abolition” of the military. Machado, who has been barred from running and is supporting alternate candidate Edmundo Gonzales, has called the accusations “fake news.” Media watchdogs have said the photo was doctored.

Maduro’s opponents have long struggled to persuade skeptics within the military.

The military has been a vital part of Mr. Maduro’s grip on power since his mentor and predecessor, former tank commander Hugo Chavez, led an uprising against an unpopular austerity government in 1992. After being elected president in 1998, Mr. Chavez purged officers who had been indoctrinated in the United States to fight communism, installed coup plotters in top positions and funneled the country’s oil revenues into fighter jets and expensive military equipment.

While Maduro does not have the military background of Chavez, he has nonetheless empowered his military allies, many of whom, like the president, face allegations of corruption and human rights abuses.

The National Guard has secretly imported riot gear and modified armored vehicles that can be used to quell protests, according to retired Gen. Rodolfo Camacho, an opponent of President Maduro who has written a report on military issues.

Meanwhile, the government has not hesitated to punish soldiers who break the rules: About half of the 301 Maduro opponents currently incarcerated who have been classified as political prisoners by the Caracas-based legal aid cooperative Foro Penal are military personnel.

The Defense Ministry did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

While no one is expecting a mutiny in the barracks, there is widespread discontent among soldiers, said William Brownfield, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela and a senior fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington.

With Venezuela’s economy going off the rails, shrinking 71% between 2012 and 2020, and inflation exceeding 130,000%, the cash bonuses and perks given to military families are becoming less attractive. Desertion is on the rise among the country’s roughly 150,000 military personnel, many of whom are joining millions of other Venezuelans. Fleeing the country Instead of defending a government that you no longer support.

“Conscripted soldiers, NCOs and junior officers don’t make a lot of money,” Brownfield said. “Many of them may have relatives who fled Venezuela, and they are susceptible to the opposition’s messaging.”

Gen. Manuel Christopher Figuera, a former intelligence chief, said any movement against President Maduro would come from below, in the form of a refusal to crack down on protesters. Opposition leaders have vowed to “protect” their vote if there is fraud, and many Venezuelans are preparing for post-election demonstrations given the recent history of political bloodshed.

“They’re not going to rebel, but they’re not going to follow orders either,” said Figuera, who fled the country in 2019 after leading a failed attempt to remove Maduro.

Some believe Maduro cannot rely so confidently on his allies and see Padrino as a potential white knight. The 61-year-old was one of the last Venezuelan officers to train in the United States, studying psychological operations at the School of the Americas at Fort Benning in Georgia, before Chavez shifted Venezuela’s allies to Russia, China and Iran.

When the opposition won a landslide victory in congressional elections in 2015, Padrino appeared on state television accompanied by his top officials to acknowledge the results before Maduro conceded defeat.

Venezuela has seen upheavals at the top before, most notably in 1958 when it ousted longtime dictator and President Marcos Pérez Jimenez.

“If there’s an avalanche of opposition supporters in the streets, it will put a lot of pressure on Padrino,” said Camacho, who worked alongside the defense minister before he was indicted on charges of plotting against Maduro’s government and fleeing Venezuela. “He’s the last hope I have left.”

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Goodman reported from Caracas, Venezuela. Associated Press writer Jorge Rueda in Caracas contributed to this report.