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Far from being a boring rematch that would turn many Americans off politics, the 2024 presidential election has seen intense twists and turns and terrifying developments.
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From his shocking performance at the CNN debate in late June to his decision to drop out of the race in late July, no one expected President Joe Biden’s campaign to implode in less than a month. Democrats went from literal panic over Biden’s candidacy to new excitement over the appointment of Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump was unexpected, but it has unified Republicans around him, with many in the party expressing a kind of sacred reverence for his near-death experience.
So we don’t know what exactly will happen in the 100 days leading up to Election Day on November 5, or what will happen once the country’s unique Electoral College process begins. But we do know some idea of what to expect.
August: Harris nominated, vice presidential candidate selected, convention held in Chicago
Democrats almost immediately endorsed Harris as their candidate, but they still need to formally select her. Delegates will do so in a short period before the convention, between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7, and will have a backstop to prevent any changes to the ballot.
Harris will also need to choose a running mate, which CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports is likely to happen soon after the convention, rather than right before, as is common.
Democrats are expected to give Biden a fantastic welcome when they hold their convention in Chicago in late August. Democrats have pivoted from worrying about Biden’s electoral prospects to hailing him as a hero.
Earlier this month, Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, turned 40. If elected, he would become the third-youngest vice president in U.S. history and the first millennial to hold national office. The Republican candidate won, and after Biden dropped out of the race, Vance became the oldest major party candidate in history to run alongside baby Trump. Baby boomer generation.
Biden and Trump had agreed to hold a second debate on September 10th, hosted by ABC News. However, with Biden dropping out of the race, Trump indicated he might not attend the ABC-hosted debate. Instead, the Trump campaign suggested a debate on Fox News, which suggested September 17th.
Both sides seem keen to discuss it, so let’s wait for more details to emerge.
The first in-person early voting also begins in September. North Carolina will be the first state to begin voting by mail on September 6, with other states likely to follow suit in the coming weeks.
As people return to school and work, many Americans may begin to pay closer attention to the September election. There will also be touchstone moments in the cultural zeitgeist, like the premiere of “Saturday Night Live” later this month, which will reveal whether Maya Rudolph will return as Harris and who will play Vance.
Trump also faces sentencing on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments made before the 2016 election. The September 18 sentencing date could be delayed as the court reacts to the new immunity the Supreme Court granted the president.
Election Day isn’t until Nov. 5, but most states allow some form of early voting, either by mail or in person, and that process will get underway in October.
About 70% of Americans voted early or by mail in 2020, according to census figures, but those numbers were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Both sides will likely focus on increasing turnout in several key battleground states that could decide the outcome. In 2020, Biden won five states that Trump carried in 2016. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could be focal points again in 2024, when Harris, who turns 60 in October, faces Trump.
November: Election Day and Beyond
Under U.S. law, federal elections are to be held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November, which this year is November 5th.
People who don’t vote early can go to their local polling place, which has different closing times across the country. The increase in mail-in voting increases the chance that the winner will not be known on Election Day, as was the case in 2020, when key states are close.
Either way, litigation is expected in some states and possible recounts in others. Election Day is far from the end of the election.
Biden will turn 82 at the end of November.
After any questions about the election are resolved, each state will certify the results of their statewide election. Electors will meet in each state’s capital city and cast their electoral votes for the statewide winner.
Nebraska and Maine also allocate some of their electoral votes to districts, which could play a decisive role in a close election.
The new Congress will be sworn in on January 3. In the unlikely event of a tie in the electoral votes, it will be this Congress that will decide the outcome of the election. Each state will cast one vote for president in the House of Representatives.
Either way, as we all remember 2020, lawmakers will meet on January 6 to count the electoral votes, with Harris presiding. She could become either the fifth vice president in history to oversee her own Electoral College victory or the fourth to oversee her own Electoral College defeat.
The next president will be sworn in on January 20, 2025.
